Scholarly Works, Economics
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Browsing Scholarly Works, Economics by Content Type "Article"
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- Economics of Squid GameWooten, Jadrian; Geerling, Wayne (Taylor & Francis, 2023)
- Frequentist ProbabilitySpanos, Aris (2017)The primary objective of this article is to discuss a model-based frequentist interpretation that identifies the probability of an event with the limit of its relative frequency of occurrence. What differentiates the proposed interpretation from the traditional ones are several key features: (i) events and probabilities are defined in the context of a statistical model , (ii) it is anchored on the strong law of large numbers, (iii) it is justified on empirical grounds by validating the model assumptions vis-à-vis data , (iv) the “long-run” metaphor can be rendered operational by simple simulation based on , and (v) the link between probability and real-world phenomena is provided by viewing data as a “truly typical” realization of the stochastic mechanism defined by . This link constitutes a feature shared with the Kolmogorov complexity algorithmic perspective on probability, which provides a further justification for the proposed frequentist interpretation.
- A model of the formation of multilayer networksBilland, Pascal; Bravard, Christophe; Joshi, Sumit; Mahmud, Ahmed Saber; Sarangi, Sudipta (Elsevier, 2023-10)We study the formation of multilayer networks where payoffs are determined by the degrees of players in each network. We begin by imposing either concavity or convexity in degree on the payoff function of the players. We then explore distinct network relationships that result from inter- and intra-network spillovers captured by the properties of supermodularity/submodularity and strategic complementarity respectively. We show the existence of equilibria and characterize them. Additionally, we establish both necessary and sufficient conditions for an equilibrium to occur. We also highlight the connection, in equilibrium, between inter-network externalities and the identity of linked players in one network given the identity of linked players in the other network. Furthermore, we analyze efficient multilayer networks. Finally, we extend our models to contexts with more than two layers, and scenarios where agents receive a bonus for being connected to the same individuals in both networks.
- Post-Corona Balanced-Budget Super-Stimulus: The Case for Shifting Taxes onto LandKumhof, Michael; Tideman, Nicolaus; Hudson, Michael; Goodhart, Charles (2021-10-20)
- Rationally Inattentive Statistical Discrimination: Arrow Meets PhelpsEchenique, Federico; Li, Anqi (2022-12)When information acquisition is costly but flexible, a principal may rationally acquire information that favors a “majority” group over “minorities” unless the latter are strictly more productive than the former (the relative size of the groups plays no actual role). Majorities therefore face incentives to in- vest in being productive to the principal, whereas minorities are discouraged from such investments. The principal, in turn, focuses scarce attentional resources on majorities precisely because they are likely to invest. Our results have welfare and policy implications, as they add to the discussion of affirmative action, as well as the empirical literature on implicit bias and discrimination in performance evaluation.
- Resolving Land Use ConflictsTideman, Nicolaus (Farm Foundation, 1972)
- Selection and Historical Height Data: Evidence from the 1892 Boas Sample of the Cherokee NationMiller, Melinda C. (USNA, 2017)Economists have increasingly turned to height data to gain insight into a population’s standard of living. Because height measures are used when other data is unavailable, testing their reliability can be difficult, and concerns over sample selection have lead to several vigorous debates within the heights literature. In this paper, I use a unique contemporaneous census to gauge the extent of selection into a contested sample of American Indian heights. I have linked people from the 1892 Boas sample of the Cherokee Nation to the 1890 Cherokee Census. An initial analysis finds evidence of negative selection into the Boas sample. A detailed examination of those measured reveals a more complex story. Two distinct groups are present within the data. The first group consists of 64 members of the Cherokee elite. Their households owned more land, had invested more in improvements to their land, and had higher literacy rates. The remainder of the Boas sample is poor relative to both the elite and the rest of the Cherokee Nation. Part, but not all, of this difference is due to their residential location. Forty percent of the Boas sample lived in poorest district of Cherokee Nation. These differences in wealth between the two groups were mirrored by a fairly dramatic difference in average heights. The average height of all men in elite group was 173.9 cm while the non-elite were several centimeters shorter at just 171.2 cm.
- What does the yield curve tell us about exchange rate predictability?Chen, Yu-Chin; Tsang, Kwok Ping (MIT Press, 2013-03)Since the term structure of interest rates embodies information about future economic activity, we extract relative Nelson-Siegel (1987) factors from cross-country yield curve differences to proxy expected movements in future exchange rate fundamentals. Using monthly data for the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and the United States, we show that the yield curve factors predict exchange rate movements and explain excess currency returns one month to two years ahead. Our results provide support for the asset pricing formulation of exchange rate determination and offer an intuitive explanation to the uncovered interest parity puzzle by relating currency risk premiums to inflation and business cycle risks.