Policy and technology options for dairy systems in East Africa: Economic and environmental assessment
Chen, Chi Chung
McCarl, Bruce A.
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Assessment of smallholder dairy technology was used as a case study to develop models in the SANREM decision support system. Scenarios depicting the industry before current improvements, the current situation, and forecasted improvements resulting from further adoption of technology were evaluated. GIS methods were used to establish appropriate sampling frames for field studies and analysis. Forage and livestock models supplemented reported data as input to economic and environmental models. Assessment of the impact of alternative smallholder dairy technology packages was evaluated in the Sondu river basin using watershed models driven by economic and environmental models. With demand growth from projected population increases, full adoption of the improved dairy technology package would generate total economic welfare of KS 4,206 million. Full adoption of the technology package in the Sondu river basin would increase sediment loads in the basin by 5% over a 21-year period and stream flow would increase slightly. The general models developed from initial smallholder dairy studies predict annual increases in productivity of between 0.3 and 0.5% per year would be required to sustain food prices at current levels with 2015 demand. Intensification and extensification strategies were evaluated to achieve these levels of productivity. Combinations of strategies were predicted to be the most rational in meeting future food security demands with sustainable use of natural resources.