Economic and environmental impact of improved sorghum and millet technology in Mali
McCarl, Bruce A.
Chen, Chi Chung
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To provide improved methods to assess the impact of introduction and use of technology, a suite of integrated interactive models was created for use in developing countries. The Agricultural Sector Model (ASM) was used to estimate the economic consequences of adopting a new sorghum production system derived from joint U.S. and Malian research under the INTSORMIL CRSP and ICRISAT. It assumed an adoption rate of between 20 and 30% among regions of Mali. Demand is based on estimates of population growth in the year 2015 (World Food Summit target date) for the various regions of Mali. The annual total national welfare associated with adoption of the technology was estimated to be FCFA 635 billion per year in the year 2015. The EPIC model was run with 20-year simulations. The model predicts a reduction in erosion using the new production system ranging 1-3% in the Segou region; 30-43% in Kayes. The reduction is attributed to faster development of canopy cover exhibited with the new system. This is due both to the improved germplasm and the increased use of fertilizer. These results suggest the economic benefits of the new production package are accompanied by positive environmental consequences through reduction in soil erosion.