Modeling of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults in the United States: Complexities and Intervention outcomes
| dc.contributor.author | Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha | en |
| dc.contributor.author | MacDonald, Rod | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Li, Kaigang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Fell, James C. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Haynie, Denise L. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Simons-Morton, Bruce | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Banz, Barbara C. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Camenga, Deepa R. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Iannotti, Ronald J. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Curry, Leslie A. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Dziura, James | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Andersen, David F. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Vaca, Federico E. | en |
| dc.coverage.country | United States | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-29T16:21:11Z | en |
| dc.date.available | 2024-07-29T16:21:11Z | en |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-07-22 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | Alcohol-impaired driving is a formidable public health problem in the United States, claiming the lives of 37 individuals daily in alcohol-related crashes. Alcohol-impaired driving is affected by a multitude of interconnected factors, coupled with long delays between stakeholders’ actions and their impacts, which not only complicate policy-making but also increase the likelihood of unintended consequences. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults. This was achieved through group model building sessions with a team of multidisciplinary subject matter experts, and a focused literature review. The model was calibrated with data series from multiple sources and replicated the historical trends for male and female individuals aged 15 to 24 from 1982 to 2020. We simulated the model under different scenarios to examine the impact of a wide range of interventions on alcohol-related crash fatalities. We found that interventions vary in terms of their effectiveness in reducing alcohol-related crash fatalities. In addition, although some interventions reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities, some may increase the number of drinkers who drive after drinking. Based on insights from simulation experiments, we combined three interventions and found that the combined strategy may reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities significantly without increasing the number of alcohol-impaired drivers on US roads. Nevertheless, related fatalities plateau over time despite the combined interventions, underscoring the need for new interventions for a sustained decline in alcohol-related crash deaths beyond a few decades. Finally, through model calibration we estimated time delays between actions and their consequences in the system which provide insights for policymakers and activists when designing strategies to reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute On Alcohol Abuse And Alcoholism of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01AA026313. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. This project (contract HHSN275201200001I) was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; the National Institute on Drug Abuse; and the Maternal and Child Health Bureau of the Health Resources and Services Administration. | en |
| dc.description.version | Published version | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117087 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10919/120738 | en |
| dc.identifier.volume | 354 | en |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | en |
| dc.rights | Public Domain (U. S.) | en |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ | en |
| dc.subject | Driving while impaired (DWI) | en |
| dc.subject | System dynamics (SD) | en |
| dc.subject | Group model building (GMB) | en |
| dc.subject | Enforcement | en |
| dc.subject | Binge drinking | en |
| dc.subject | Peer influences | en |
| dc.title | Modeling of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults in the United States: Complexities and Intervention outcomes | en |
| dc.title.serial | Social Science & Medicine | en |
| dc.type | Article - Refereed | en |
| dc.type.dcmitype | Text | en |