The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture

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Luhe, Germany: Inter-Research

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to be a significant cause of year to year climate variation, which greatly impacts agricultural productivity. The unusually strong El Niño event in 1997-98 and the strong La Niña event that followed in 1998-99 both led to economic consequences for US agriculture. This paper applies a stochastic economic model to estimate the extent of economic damage, deriving predicted losses to be $1.5 to $1.7 billion for El Niño and $2.2 to $6.5 billion for La Niña.

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Farm planning, Economic analyses, Modeling, Economic modeling and analysis, Economic impacts, Agriculture, El niño southern oscillation (enso), Agricultural production, Economic sector model, Crop biophysical simulation model, Crop yields, Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC), Agricultural assessment model (asm), Farm/Enterprise Scale
Climate Research 13(3): 165-172