Implications of Tomato Tariffs on Grocery Prices

Abstract

On July 14, 2025, the U.S. government imposed a 17.09 percent tariff on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico and terminated the nearly three-decade-long Tomato Suspension Agreement, signaling a major shift in tomato trade policy and raising concerns about the effects on U.S. producers and consumer prices. Since 1990, domestic production has declined while imports, especially from Mexico, have surged, with tomatoes becoming the highest-value imported vegetable and imports doubling domestic production volumes by 2024. These trends have fueled debates over the competitiveness of U.S. growers, particularly in Florida, and set the stage for renewed trade actions after the USITC found in 2019 that Mexican imports threatened material injury. With the immediate effects of the new tariffs still uncertain, the article reviews the evolution of U.S.–Mexico tomato trade policy, recent pricing patterns, and the key factors that will shape how these 2025 tariffs influence consumer prices and domestic production.