Forecasting Model for Air Taxi, Commercial Airline, and Automobile Demand in the United States

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Transportation Research Board of the National Academies


A nationwide model predicts the annual county-to-county person roundtrips for air taxi, commercial airline, and automobile at 1-year intervals through 2030. The transportation systems analysis model (TSAM) uses the four-step transportation systems modeling process to calculate trip generation, trip distribution, and mode choice for each county origin–destination pair. Network assignment is formulated for commercial airline and air taxi demand. TSAM classifies trip rates by trip purpose, household income group, and type of metropolitan statistical area from which the round-trip started. A graphical user interface with geographic information systems capability is included in the model. Potential applications of the model are nationwide impact studies of transportation policies and technologies, such as those envisioned with the introduction of extensive air taxi service using very light jets, the next-generation air transportation system, and the introduction of new aerospace technologies.