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Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016

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dc.contributor.authorMcGowan, Craig J.en
dc.contributor.authorBiggerstaff, Matthewen
dc.contributor.authorJohansson, Michaelen
dc.contributor.authorApfeldorf, Karyn M.en
dc.contributor.authorBen-Nun, Michalen
dc.contributor.authorBrooks, Loganen
dc.contributor.authorConvertino, Matteoen
dc.contributor.authorErraguntla, Madhaven
dc.contributor.authorFarrow, David C.en
dc.contributor.authorFreeze, Johnen
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Sauraven
dc.contributor.authorHyun, Sangwonen
dc.contributor.authorKandula, Sasikiranen
dc.contributor.authorLega, Jocelineen
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Yangen
dc.contributor.authorMichaud, Nicholasen
dc.contributor.authorMorita, Harukaen
dc.contributor.authorNiemi, Jaraden
dc.contributor.authorRamakrishnan, Narenen
dc.contributor.authorRay, Evan L.en
dc.contributor.authorReich, Nicholas G.en
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Peteen
dc.contributor.authorShaman, Jeffreyen
dc.contributor.authorTibshirani, Ryanen
dc.contributor.authorVespignani, Alessandroen
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Qianen
dc.contributor.authorReed, Carrieen
dc.contributor.authorRosenfeld, Ronien
dc.contributor.authorUlloa, Nehemiasen
dc.contributor.authorWill, Katieen
dc.contributor.authorTurtle, Jamesen
dc.contributor.authorBacon, Daviden
dc.contributor.authorRiley, Stevenen
dc.contributor.authorYang, Wanen
dc.contributor.authorThe Influenza Forecasting Working Groupen
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-01T13:54:52Zen
dc.date.available2019-04-01T13:54:52Zen
dc.date.issued2019-01-24en
dc.description.abstractSince 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts. © 2019, The Author(s).en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9en
dc.identifier.issn20452322en
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.other683en
dc.identifier.pmid30679458en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/88786en
dc.identifier.volume9en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.titleCollaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016en
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)