A novel hybrid GNSS, GRACE, and InSAR joint inversion approach to constrain water loss during a record-setting drought in California

Abstract

Water years 2020 and 2021 in California were two of the driest on record and the most recent series of dry years during a two-decade-long mega-drought. The 2020-2021 drought period, characterized by low precipitation and high temperatures, had devastating effects, including an increase in ongoing groundwater overdraft, manifesting in rapid subsidence in California's Central Valley. Here, we present a unified hybrid physics-based stochastic model incorporating measurements from three geodetic sensors to produce a high-resolution map of terrestrial water storage change (Delta TWS) across California during the 2020-2021 dry years. The novel joint inversion framework combines Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) elastic vertical displacements, Delta TWS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellites (GRACE and the follow-on mission, GRACE-FO) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements of poroelastic deformation through a model comprising elastic loading and poroelastic Green's functions. This framework yields a high-resolution and more realistic estimate of Delta TWS within the Central Valley and the surrounding mountain ranges by accounting for poroelastic aquifer deformation. Besides the total Delta TWS, our novel inversion framework simultaneously solves the change in groundwater storage and is used to produce a high-resolution map of groundwater storage loss across the Central Valley. We calculate a groundwater volume loss of 20.4+/- 2.6 km3 in the semi-confined to confined portion of the aquifer-system, with the largest groundwater volume loss in the southern Central Valley over the two dry years. We show that groundwater loss estimates found using our joint inversion framework agree with results from a conventional approach for GRACE-FO-derived groundwater loss estimates when considering underlying processes and uncertainties. Finally, we compare shallow groundwater storage change estimates with those derived from in-situ groundwater level measurements in the Sacramento Valley.