Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

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dc.contributor.authorRyan, Sadie J.en
dc.contributor.authorCarlson, Colin J.en
dc.contributor.authorMordecai, Erin A.en
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Leah R.en
dc.contributor.departmentStatisticsen
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-09T14:43:24Zen
dc.date.available2019-08-09T14:43:24Zen
dc.date.issued2019-03en
dc.description.abstractForecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses, especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3-34.0 degrees C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9-29.4 degrees C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.en
dc.description.notesThis work was funded by the National Science Foundation (DEB-1518681 to SJR, LRJ, EAM, NSF DEB-1641145 to SJR, and DEB-1640780 to EAM), and CDC grant 1U01CK000510-01: Southeastern Regional Center of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases: the Gateway Program, to SJR. This publication was supported by the Cooperative Agreement Number above from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Support was also provided by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment (https://woods.stanford.edu/research/environmental-venture-projects), and the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health (http://globalhealth.stanford.edu/research/seed-grants.html).The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation [DEB-1518681, NSF DEB-1641145, DEB-1640780]; CDC [1U01CK000510-01]; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment; Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Healthen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213en
dc.identifier.issn1935-2735en
dc.identifier.issue3en
dc.identifier.othere0007213en
dc.identifier.pmid30921321en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/93019en
dc.identifier.volume13en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPLOSen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectdengue-feveren
dc.subjectchikungunya virusen
dc.subjectzika virusen
dc.subjectdiseaseen
dc.subjectvectoren
dc.subjectTemperatureen
dc.subjectpopulationen
dc.subjectaegyptien
dc.subjectmodelsen
dc.subjectimpacten
dc.titleGlobal expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate changeen
dc.title.serialPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseasesen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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