Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

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dc.contributor.authorMordecai, Erin A.en
dc.contributor.authorCohen, Jeremy M.en
dc.contributor.authorEvans, Michelle V.en
dc.contributor.authorGudapati, Prithvien
dc.contributor.authorJohnson, Leah R.en
dc.contributor.authorLippi, Catherine A.en
dc.contributor.authorMiazgowicz, Kerrien
dc.contributor.authorMurdock, Courtney C.en
dc.contributor.authorRohr, Jason R.en
dc.contributor.authorRyan, Sadie J.en
dc.contributor.authorSavage, Vanen
dc.contributor.authorShocket, Marta S.en
dc.contributor.authorStewart-Ibarra, Anna M.en
dc.contributor.authorThomas, Matthew B.en
dc.contributor.authorWeikel, Daniel P.en
dc.contributor.departmentStatisticsen
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-09T14:43:24Zen
dc.date.available2019-08-09T14:43:24Zen
dc.date.issued2017-04en
dc.description.abstractRecent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34 degrees C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29 degrees C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.en
dc.description.notesEAM, MBT, VS, SJR, LRJ, ASI, JRR, MS, JC, and DPW were supported by the National Science Foundation (DEB-1518681; https://nsf. gay). JRR was supported by the NSF (EF-1241889; https://nsf.gov/), National Institutes of Health (R01GM109499 and R01TW010286-01; https.//www.nih.gov/), US Department of Agriculture (2009-35102-0543; https://www.usda. gov/wns/portal/usda/usdahome) and US Environmental Protection Agency (CAREER 83518801; https://www.epa.gov/). EAM and CCM were supported by the NSF (DEB-1640780; https.// nsf.gov/). EAM was supported by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment (https:// woods.stanford.edu/research/environmental-venture-projects) and the Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Health (http.//globalhealth.stanford.edu.research/seed-grants.htm). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation [DEB-1518681]; NSF [EF-1241889, DEB-1640780]; National Institutes of Health [R01GM109499, R01TW010286-01]; US Department of Agriculture [2009-35102-0543]; US Environmental Protection Agency [83518801]; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment; Stanford Center for Innovation in Global Healthen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568en
dc.identifier.issn1935-2735en
dc.identifier.issue4en
dc.identifier.othere0005568en
dc.identifier.pmid28448507en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/93021en
dc.identifier.volume11en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPLOSen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectaedes-albopictus dipteraen
dc.subjectextrinsic incubation perioden
dc.subjectlife-history traitsen
dc.subjectvirus transmissionen
dc.subjectdependent developmenten
dc.subjectaegypti dipteraen
dc.subjectvectoren
dc.subjectculicidaeen
dc.subjectsurvivalen
dc.subjectmosquitosen
dc.titleDetecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic modelsen
dc.title.serialPLOS Neglected Tropical Diseasesen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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