The impact of within-vector parasite development on the extrinsic incubation period

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dc.contributor.authorChilds, Lauren M.en
dc.contributor.authorProsper, Olivia F.en
dc.contributor.departmentMathematicsen
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-02T20:33:21Zen
dc.date.available2021-02-02T20:33:21Zen
dc.date.issued2020-10-07en
dc.description.abstractMosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria, have a significant burden worldwide leading to nearly half a million deaths each year. The malaria parasite requires a vertebrate host, such as a human, and a vector host, the Anopheles mosquito, to complete its full life cycle. Here, we focus on the parasite dynamics within the vector to examine the first appearance of sporozoites in the salivary glands, which indicates a first time of infectiousness of mosquitoes. The timing of this period of pathogen development in the mosquito until transmissibility, known as the extrinsic incubation period, remains poorly understood. We develop compartmental models of within-mosquito parasite dynamics fitted with experimental data on oocyst and sporozoite counts. We find that only a fraction of oocysts burst to release sporozoites and bursting must be delayed either via a time-dependent function or a gamma-distributed set of compartments. We use Bayesian inference to estimate distributions of parameters and determine that bursting rate is a key epidemiological parameter. A better understanding of the factors impacting the extrinsic incubation period will aid in the development of interventions to slow or stop the spread of malaria.en
dc.description.notesO.F.P. acknowledges the support of NSF-DMS Award no. 1816075. L.M.C. acknowledges the support of Simons Foundation Collaboration Grant for Mathematicians no. 524390 and NSF-DMS Award no. 1853495. This work was assisted by attendance of L.M.C. as a Short-term Visitor at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, an Institute supported by the National Science Foundation through NSF Award no. DBI-1300426, with additional support from The University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. We thank Maria-Gloria Basanez for insightful conversations on the literature and unpublished data. We thank Leah Johnson for helpful conversations on implementation of debInfer.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNSF-DMS Award [1853495, 1816075]; Simons Foundation Collaboration Grant for Mathematicians [524390]; National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DBI-1300426]; University of Tennessee, Knoxvilleen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.192173en
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703en
dc.identifier.issue10en
dc.identifier.other192173en
dc.identifier.pmid33204441en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/102201en
dc.identifier.volume7en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectmalariaen
dc.subjectmosquitoen
dc.subjectwithin-host modelen
dc.subjectBayesian inferenceen
dc.subjectextrinsic incubation perioden
dc.titleThe impact of within-vector parasite development on the extrinsic incubation perioden
dc.title.serialRoyal Society Open Scienceen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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