Measuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidence

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dc.contributor.authorShirzaei, Manoochehren
dc.contributor.authorFreymueller, Jeffreyen
dc.contributor.authorTornqvist, Torbjorn E.en
dc.contributor.authorGalloway, Devin L.en
dc.contributor.authorDura, Tinaen
dc.contributor.authorMinderhoud, Philip S. J.en
dc.contributor.departmentGeosciencesen
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-16T15:58:03Zen
dc.date.available2021-07-16T15:58:03Zen
dc.date.issued2021-01en
dc.description.abstractMeasuring coastal subsidence is essential to evaluating hazards associated with sea-level rise. This Review discusses the processes driving coastal subsidence, space-borne and land-based measurement techniques, as well as models for simulating observed subsidence and predicting future trends. Coastal subsidence contributes to relative sea-level rise and exacerbates flooding hazards, with the at-risk population expected to triple by 2070. Natural processes of vertical land motion, such as tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment and sediment compaction, as well as anthropogenic processes, such as fluid extraction, lead to globally variable subsidence rates. In this Review, we discuss the key physical processes driving vertical land motion in coastal areas. Use of space-borne and land-based techniques and the associated uncertainties for monitoring subsidence are examined, as are physics-based models used to explain contemporary subsidence rates and to obtain future projections. Steady and comparatively low rates of subsidence and uplift owing to tectonic processes and glacial isostatic adjustment can be assumed for the twenty-first century. By contrast, much higher and variable subsidence rates occur owing to compaction associated with sediment loading and fluid extraction, as well as large earthquakes. These rates can be up to two orders of magnitude higher than the present-day rate of global sea-level rise. Multi-objective predictive models are required to account for the underlying physical processes and socio-economic factors that drive subsidence.en
dc.description.adminPublic domain – authored by a U.S. government employeeen
dc.description.notesThe authors thank the reviewers for providing insightful comments and suggestions and J. Flocks for providing constructive comments on the manuscript. M.S. is supported by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. 80NSSC170567) and the US National Science Foundation (grant no. EAR-1735630). J.F. is supported by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. 80NSSC17K0566). T.E.T. has been supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant no. EAR-1349311). T.D. is supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant nos. EAR-1624795 and EAR-1624533). P.S.J.M. is supported by an EU Marie Skodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (grant no. 894476 - InSPiRED - H2020-MSCA-IF-2019). This work is a contribution to the PALSEA programme and International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) project 639. Any use of trade, firm or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.en
dc.description.sponsorshipUS National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) [80NSSC170567, 80NSSC17K0566]; US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [EAR-1735630, EAR-1349311, EAR-1624795, EAR-1624533]; EU Marie Skodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship [894476]; International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) project [639]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00115-xen
dc.identifier.eissn2662-138Xen
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/104188en
dc.identifier.volume2en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsPublic Domainen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/en
dc.titleMeasuring, modelling and projecting coastal land subsidenceen
dc.title.serialNature Reviews Earth & Environmenten
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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