Shifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened species

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dc.contributor.authorLouthan, Allison M.en
dc.contributor.authorWalters, Jeffrey R.en
dc.contributor.authorTerando, Adam J.en
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Victoriaen
dc.contributor.authorMorris, William F.en
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-30T19:01:39Zen
dc.date.available2022-03-30T19:01:39Zen
dc.date.issued2021-09en
dc.description.abstractMost studies of the ecological effects of climate change consider only a limited number of weather drivers that could affect populations, though we know that multiple weather drivers can simultaneously affect population growth rate. Multiple drivers could simultaneously increase/decrease one vital rate, or one may increase a vital rate while another decreases the same vital rate. Considering the impact of multiple weather drivers on vital rates is particularly important in a changing climate, in which correlations among drivers may not be preserved in the future. We used a long-term dataset on the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Dryobates borealis) to understand how multiple weather drivers jointly affect survival and reproductive vital rates and then assessed the contributions of individual weather drivers to historical trends in vital rates over time. We found that vital rates were often influenced by more than one weather driver and that weather drivers most commonly exerted opposing effects. For instance, some weather drivers increased vital rates over time, while others acted in the opposite direction, decreasing vital rates over time. Importantly, the historical correlations among weather drivers are almost always projected to change in the future climate, such that future trends in vital rates may not match historical trends. For example, we do not find historical trends in adult survival, but changing correlations among weather drivers could generate future trends in this vital rate. Our work provides an example of how multiple weather drivers can control a variety of vital rates and also illustrates how changes in the correlation structure of weather drivers through time might substantially affect future trends in individual and population performance.en
dc.description.notesWe acknowledge financial support from the Department of Defense (Strategic Environmental Resource and Development Program W912HQ-15-C-0051, Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, Department of the Army, Fort Bragg, and Eglin Air Force Base), National Science Foundation (NSF, BSR-8307090, BSR-8717683), the Harold H. Bailey Fund (Virginia Tech), Sandhills Ecological Institute, U.S. Army Fort Bragg Endangered species branch, United States Department of Agriculture, National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch project 1016746, NSF Division of Environmental Biology 1753980, and North Carolina Sandhills Gamelands and Wildlife Resources Commission. Work was permitted by Federal Endangered Species Permit TE070846, Federal Banding Permit 21544, and Institutional Animal Care Committee Permits 16-209. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. This publication is contribution number 22-014-J from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station.en
dc.description.sponsorshipDepartment of DefenseUnited States Department of Defense [W912HQ-15-C-0051]; National Science Foundation (NSF)National Science Foundation (NSF) [BSR-8307090, BSR-8717683]; Harold H. Bailey Fund (Virginia Tech); Sandhills Ecological Institute; U.S. Army Fort Bragg Endangered species branch; United States Department of AgricultureUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA); National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch project [1016746]; NSF Division of Environmental BiologyNational Science Foundation (NSF)NSF - Directorate for Biological Sciences (BIO) [1753980]; North Carolina Sandhills Gamelands and Wildlife Resources Commissionen
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3740en
dc.identifier.issn2150-8925en
dc.identifier.issue9en
dc.identifier.othere03740en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/109505en
dc.identifier.volume12en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectcorrelationen
dc.subjectdirectional trenden
dc.subjectvital rateen
dc.subjectweatheren
dc.titleShifting correlations among multiple aspects of weather complicate predicting future demography of a threatened speciesen
dc.title.serialEcosphereen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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