A Range-Wide Meta-Analysis of Wild Turkey Nesting Phenology and Spring Season Opening Dates

Timing of nesting is an important consideration when setting opening dates for spring male-only wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) hunts. We conducted a meta-analysis in which we used mean dates of incubation initiation from 58 studies to evaluate a priori models hypothesized to predict turkey nesting phenology across the species’ range. Models were based on geographic setting, climate, and management activities, and had weak to moderate explanatory power (Range R2 adj = 0.12–0.55). We developed 2 post hoc models to better predict mean incubation date, and used one of these to generate a range-wide map predicting timing of nest incubation. A second model selection exercise focused solely on the eastern subspecies of wild turkey, and our best model of incubation date included population status and a cubic term for latitude (n =41, R2 adj = 0.80). Lastly, we compared incubation initiation dates to opening dates for spring male-only hunting in each jurisdiction. Of 34 states and provinces for which we obtained data, 25 opened spring hunting 2 weeks prior to the mean date of incubation initiation, and 18 of these also allowed fall either-sex hunting. This finding is noteworthy because extended fall seasons and spring hunting during the pre-nesting period can lead to additive and unsustainable levels of female kill.