Improved Neutral Density Predictions Through Machine Learning Enabled Exospheric Temperature Model

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dc.contributor.authorLicata, Richard J.en
dc.contributor.authorMehta, Piyush M.en
dc.contributor.authorWeimer, Daniel R.en
dc.contributor.authorTobiska, W. Kenten
dc.date.accessioned2022-09-09T18:31:39Zen
dc.date.available2022-09-09T18:31:39Zen
dc.date.issued2021-12en
dc.description.abstractThe community has leveraged satellite accelerometer data sets in previous years to estimate neutral mass density and exospheric temperatures. We utilize derived temperature data and optimize a nonlinear machine-learned (ML) regression model to improve upon the performance of the linear EXospheric TEMPeratures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid (EXTEMPLAR) model. The newly developed EXTEMPLAR-ML model allows for exospheric temperature predictions at any location with one model and provides performance improvements over its predecessor. We achieve reductions in mean absolute error of 2 K on an independent test set while providing similar error standard deviation values. Comparing the performance of both EXTEMPLAR models and the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Extended model (NRLMSISE-00) across different solar and geomagnetic activity levels shows that EXTEMPLAR-ML has the lowest mean absolute error across 80% of conditions tested. A study for spatial errors demonstrated that at all grid locations, EXTEMPLAR-ML has the lowest mean absolute error for over 60% of the polyhedral grid cells on the test set. Like EXTEMPLAR, our model's outputs can be utilized by NRLMSISE-00 (exclusively) to more closely match satellite accelerometer-derived densities. We conducted 10 case studies where we compare the accelerometer-derived temperature and density estimates from four satellites to NRLMSISE-00, EXTEMPLAR, and EXTEMPALR-ML during major storm periods. These comparisons show that EXTEMPLAR-ML generally has the best performance of the three models during storms. We use principal component analysis on EXTEMPLAR-ML outputs to verify the physical response of the model to its drivers.en
dc.description.notesThis work was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC20K1362 to Virginia Tech under the Space Weather Operations 2 Research Program with subcontracts to WVU and SET. The authors would like to thank Douglas Drob for his insight into the MSIS model. The authors also appreciate the work of the anonymous reviewers for all of their time and effort in helping improve this manuscript.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNASA [80NSSC20K1362]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002918en
dc.identifier.eissn1542-7390en
dc.identifier.issue12en
dc.identifier.othere2021SW002918en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/111779en
dc.identifier.volume19en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Unionen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectmachine learningen
dc.subjectmodel developmenten
dc.subjectexospheric temperatureen
dc.subjectthermosphereen
dc.titleImproved Neutral Density Predictions Through Machine Learning Enabled Exospheric Temperature Modelen
dc.title.serialSpace Weather-The International Journal of Research and Applicationsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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