Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

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dc.contributor.authorDura, Tinaen
dc.contributor.authorGarner, Andra J.en
dc.contributor.authorWeiss, Roberten
dc.contributor.authorKopp, Robert E.en
dc.contributor.authorEngelhart, Simon E.en
dc.contributor.authorWitter, Robert C.en
dc.contributor.authorBriggs, Richard W.en
dc.contributor.authorMueller, Charles S.en
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Alan R.en
dc.contributor.authorHorton, Benjamin P.en
dc.coverage.countryUnited Statesen
dc.coverage.stateCaliforniaen
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-08T20:41:29Zen
dc.date.available2021-12-08T20:41:29Zen
dc.date.issued2021-12-08en
dc.description.abstractThe amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationDura, T., Garner, A.J., Weiss, R. et al. Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise. Nat Commun 12, 7119 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/106868en
dc.identifier.volume12en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectClimate-change impactsen
dc.subjectNatural hazardsen
dc.titleChanging impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level riseen
dc.title.serialNature Communicationsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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