Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts

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dc.contributor.authorChen, Chi-Chungen
dc.contributor.authorMcCarl, Bruce A.en
dc.contributor.authorAdams, Richard M.en
dc.contributor.departmentSustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Knowledgebaseen
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-19T18:07:44Zen
dc.date.available2016-04-19T18:07:44Zen
dc.date.issued1999en
dc.description.abstractSome argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann et al.(1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the $3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier301en
dc.identifier.citationPresented at the International Workshop on Climate Prediction and Agriculture (CLIMAG), World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 27-29 September 1999en
dc.identifier.other301_econImplicaPoten.pdfen
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/65369en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.subjectWorld marketsen
dc.subjectModelingen
dc.subjectEconomic modeling and analysisen
dc.subjectEconomic impactsen
dc.subjectDisaster preparednessen
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectClimate variabilityen
dc.subjectAgricultural Sector Model (ASM)en
dc.subjectEl niño southern oscillation (enso)en
dc.subjectWeather eventsen
dc.subjectCrop yieldsen
dc.subjectEcosystem Farm/Enterprise Scaleen
dc.titleEconomic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shiftsen
dc.typePresentationen
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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