Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC

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dc.contributor.authorParikh, Nidhien
dc.contributor.authorYoussef, Minaen
dc.contributor.authorSwarup, Samarthen
dc.contributor.authorEubank, Stephenen
dc.date.accessed2014-06-13en
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-16T14:11:26Zen
dc.date.available2014-06-16T14:11:26Zen
dc.date.issued2013-11en
dc.description.abstractLarge numbers of transients visit big cities, where they come into contact with many people at crowded areas. However, epidemiological studies have not paid much attention to the role of this subpopulation in disease spread. We evaluate the effect of transients on epidemics by extending a synthetic population model for the Washington DC metro area to include leisure and business travelers. A synthetic population is obtained by combining multiple data sources to build a detailed minute-by-minute simulation of population interaction resulting in a contact network. We simulate an influenza-like illness over the contact network to evaluate the effects of transients on the number of infected residents. We find that there are significantly more infections when transients are considered. Since much population mixing happens at major tourism locations, we evaluate two targeted interventions: closing museums and promoting healthy behavior (such as the use of hand sanitizers, covering coughs, etc.) at museums. Surprisingly, closing museums has no beneficial effect. However, promoting healthy behavior at the museums can both reduce and delay the epidemic peak. We analytically derive the reproductive number and perform stability analysis using an ODE-based model.en
dc.description.sponsorshipDTRA CNIMS HDTRA1-11-D-0016-0001en
dc.description.sponsorshipNIH MIDAS Grant 2U01GM070694-09en
dc.description.sponsorshipNSF HSD Grant SES-0729441en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationParikh, N.; Youssef, M.; Swarup, S.; Eubank, S., "Modeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DC," Scientific Reports 3:3152, (2013). DOI: 10.1038/srep03152.en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1038/srep03152en
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/48938en
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131106/srep03152/full/srep03152.htmlen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectinfluenzaen
dc.subjectdiseaseen
dc.subjectspreaden
dc.subjectmultidisciplinary sciencesen
dc.titleModeling the effect of transient populations on epidemics in Washington DCen
dc.title.serialScientific Reportsen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)