The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali

This study uses climate change projections from two global circulation models to address the impact of climate change on Mali's agriculture sector and the consequences for the sector economy and food security. The authors focus on crops, forage, and livestock as indicators of climate change effects. The analysis projected a change in national crop yields between a 17% decrease and a 6% increase, a 5 to 36% decrease in forage yields, and a 14 to 16% decrease in livestock weights. These changes correspond to economic losses of $70 to $142 million, which are primarily absorbed by the consumers; the percentage of the population at risk for hunger is projected to increase to 64 to 72%, which is a potentially doubling the current estimate of 34%. The authors suggest that developing heat resistant cultivars, using improved cultivars already developed, adapting cropping patterns to climate changes, and expanding cropland can prevent these dramatic consequences of climate change and lower the percentage facing a hunger risk to as low as 28%.