The value of ENSO information to agriculture: Consideration of event strength and trade
TR Number
Date
2000
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Bozeman, MT: Western Agricultural Economics Association
Abstract
This paper uses economic models to assess the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge in agricultural planning. The authors evaluate the effects of improved forecasts of ENSO through economic modeling that incorporates the US agricultural sector and global trade. They attempted to quantify the impacts of expanding the model to include global consequences of ENSO shifts and also evaluated the value of basing the model on the full distribution versus averaged ENSO phase strength effects, finding that accounting for the full distribution increased the value of the information to twice that of the averaged distribution calculations.
Description
Metadata only record
Keywords
World markets, Economic analyses, International trade, Modeling, Economic modeling and analysis, Economic impacts, Agriculture, El niño southern oscillation (enso), Agricultural Sector Model (ASM), Dissemination, Stochastic programming, Crop yields, Enso forecasts, Value of information, Uncertainty, Spatial equilbrium model, Farm/Enterprise Scale
Citation
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 25(2): 368-385