Anyone, Anywhere, not Everyone, Everywhere: Starlink Doesn't End the Digital Divide

Abstract

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, such as Starlink, are increasingly promoted as a solution to the digital divide in rural and underserved communities. In this paper, we take a closer look at the limits of this approach. Using the insight that capacity limitations of LEO-based access networks are driven by peak demand density, we introduce a simple analytical model that brings together real-world demand data with the physical and regulatory limits of LEO satellite networks. Applying our model to broadband demand across the United States,we find that serving the current Starlink constellation size is likely insufficient for covering all un- and underserved locations in the US and we find diminishing returns that disincentivize scaling the constellation to serve the long-tail of these un(der)served locations. We also identify that Starlink’s current pricing is likely unaffordable for the majority of these locations, even with existing government subsidies. We argue that LEO constellations, while technologically impressive, are just another piece of the solution, rather than a panacea. New, innovative approaches are still required to end the digital divide.