Technical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: Impact assessment under uncertainty

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dc.contributor.authorFisher, M. G.en
dc.contributor.authorMasters, W. A.en
dc.contributor.authorSidibe, M.en
dc.contributor.departmentSustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Knowledgebaseen
dc.coverage.spatialSénégalen
dc.coverage.temporal1995 - 2004en
dc.date.accessioned2016-04-19T18:55:44Zen
dc.date.available2016-04-19T18:55:44Zen
dc.date.issued2001en
dc.descriptionMetadata only recorden
dc.description.abstractThis paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the irrigated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex-ante the economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily on early maturity, which permits double-cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.) We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, 1-10] partial-equilibrium model adapted to the Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high payoff over the 1995-2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. --Elsevier/Author's abstracten
dc.format.mimetypetext/plainen
dc.identifier1118en
dc.identifier.citationAgricultural Economics 24(2): 179-197en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5150(00)00061-Xen
dc.identifier.issn0169-5150en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/65954en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherElsevier Scienceen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2001 Elsevier Scienceen
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectEconomic analysesen
dc.subjectModelingen
dc.subjectFood strategyen
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.subjectRiceen
dc.subjectSenegalen
dc.subjectSenegal river valleyen
dc.subjectDouble croppingen
dc.subjectTechnical changeen
dc.subjectCost-benefit analysisen
dc.subjectImproved varietiesen
dc.subjectPartial equilibrium modelen
dc.subjectFarm/Enterprise Scaleen
dc.titleTechnical change in Senegal's irrigated rice sector: Impact assessment under uncertaintyen
dc.typeAbstracten
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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