Human Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructures

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dc.contributorVirginia Techen
dc.contributor.authorBarrett, Christopher L.en
dc.contributor.authorChannakeshava, Karthiken
dc.contributor.authorHuang, Feien
dc.contributor.authorMarathe, Achlaen
dc.contributor.authorMarathe, Madhav V.en
dc.contributor.authorPei, Guanhongen
dc.contributor.authorSaha, Sudipen
dc.contributor.authorVullikanti, Anil Kumar S.en
dc.contributor.authorKim, Junwhanen
dc.contributor.authorSubbiah, Balaaji S. P.en
dc.date.accessed2014-04-29en
dc.date.accessioned2014-06-17T20:12:08Zen
dc.date.available2014-06-17T20:12:08Zen
dc.date.issued2012-10-31en
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number of overloaded base stations than the evacuation compliance rate of 90%.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundationen
dc.description.sponsorshipDivision of Computer and Network Systemsen
dc.description.sponsorshipDivision of Social and Economic Sciencesen
dc.description.sponsorshipOffice of Cyberinfrastructureen
dc.description.sponsorshipDefense Threat Reduction Agencyen
dc.description.sponsorshipU.S. Department of Energyen
dc.description.sponsorshipNaval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Divisionen
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Institutes of Healthen
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseasesen
dc.description.sponsorshipCNS-0626964en
dc.description.sponsorshipSES-0729441en
dc.description.sponsorshipOCI-0904844en
dc.description.sponsorshipCNS-0831633en
dc.description.sponsorshipCNS-0845700en
dc.description.sponsorshipCNS-1011769en
dc.description.sponsorshipOCI-1032677en
dc.description.sponsorshipHDTRA1-0901-0017en
dc.description.sponsorshipHDTRA1-07-C-0113en
dc.description.sponsorshipDE-SC0003957en
dc.description.sponsorshipN00178-09-D-3017 DEL ORDER 13en
dc.description.sponsorship2U01GM070694-7en
dc.description.sponsorshipHHSN272201000056Cen
dc.identifier.citationBarrett C, Channakeshava K, Huang F, Kim J, Marathe A, et al. (2012) Human Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructures. PLoS ONE 7(10): e45406. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045406en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0045406en
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/48997en
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0045406en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Scienceen
dc.rightsIn Copyrighten
dc.rights.urihttp://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/en
dc.subjectBehavioren
dc.subjectCommunicationsen
dc.subjectRoadsen
dc.subjectSocial networksen
dc.subjectSpatial distributionen
dc.subjectTelecommunicationsen
dc.subjectTransportationen
dc.subjectTransportation infrastructureen
dc.titleHuman Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructuresen
dc.title.serialPLoS ONEen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden

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