Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models

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dc.contributor.authorRanganathan, Shyamen
dc.contributor.authorNicolis, Stamatios C.en
dc.contributor.authorSwain, Ranjula Balien
dc.contributor.authorSumpter, David J. T.en
dc.contributor.departmentStatisticsen
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-31T13:11:59Zen
dc.date.available2018-07-31T13:11:59Zen
dc.date.issued2017-02-27en
dc.description.abstractThe Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171560en
dc.identifier.eissn1932-6203en
dc.identifier.issue2en
dc.identifier.othere0171560en
dc.identifier.pmid28241057en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/84446en
dc.identifier.volume12en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherPLOSen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.titleSetting development goals using stochastic dynamical system modelsen
dc.title.serialPLOS ONEen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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