Modeling Coastal Environmental Change and the Tsunami Hazard

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dc.contributor.authorWeiss, Roberten
dc.contributor.authorDura, Tinaen
dc.contributor.authorIrish, Jennifer L.en
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-16T12:40:45Zen
dc.date.available2022-06-16T12:40:45Zen
dc.date.issued2022-05-02en
dc.description.abstractThe hazard from earthquake-generated tsunami waves is not only determined by the earthquake's magnitude and mechanisms, and distance to the earthquake area, but also by the geomorphology of the nearshore and onshore areas, which can change over time. In coastal hazard assessments, a changing coastal environment is commonly taken into account by increasing the sea-level to projected values (static). However, sea-level changes and other climate-change impacts influence the entire coastal system causing morphological changes near- and onshore (dynamic). We compare the run-up of the same suite of earthquake-generated tsunamis to a barrier island-marsh-lagoon-marsh system for statically adjusted and dynamically adjusted sea level and bathymetry. Sea-level projections from 2000 to 2100 are considered. The dynamical adjustment is based on a morphokinetic model that incorporates sea-level along with other climate-change impacts. We employ Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5 without and with treatment of Antarctic Ice-sheet processes (known as K14 and K17) as different sea-level projections. It is important to note that we do not account for the occurrence probability of the earthquakes. Our results indicate that the tsunami run-up hazard for the dynamic case is approximately three times larger than for the static case. Furthermore, we show that nonlinear and complex responses of the barrier island-marsh-lagoon-marsh system to climate change profoundly impacts the tsunami hazard, and we caution that the tsunami run-up is sensitive to climate-change impacts that are less well-studied than sea-level rise.en
dc.description.notesThis material is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grants GLD-1630099 and DGE-1735139 and by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers through the U.S. Coastal Research Program (under Grant No. W912HZ -20-2-0005.en
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation [GLD-1630099, DGE-1735139]; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers through the U.S. Coastal Research Program [W912HZ -20-2-0005]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.871794en
dc.identifier.eissn2296-7745en
dc.identifier.other871794en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/110802en
dc.identifier.volume9en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherFrontiersen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectcoastal systems responseen
dc.subjecttsunamien
dc.subjectmodelingen
dc.subjectclimate-change impactsen
dc.subjectMonte Carloen
dc.titleModeling Coastal Environmental Change and the Tsunami Hazarden
dc.title.serialFrontiers in Marine Scienceen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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Scholarly Works, Geosciences
Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS)
Scholarly Works, Center for Coastal Studies
Scholarly Works, Civil and Environmental Engineering