Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread

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dc.contributor.authorGoldstein, J.en
dc.contributor.authorPark, J.en
dc.contributor.authorHaran, M.en
dc.contributor.authorLiebhold, A.en
dc.contributor.authorBjørnstad, O.N.en
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-05T14:31:03Zen
dc.date.available2019-04-05T14:31:03Zen
dc.date.issued2019-01-09en
dc.description.abstractThe spread of invasive species can have far-reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions. - We combine a set of statistical methods in a novel way to characterize local spread properties and demonstrate their application using simulated and historical data on invasive insects. Our method uses a Gaussian process fit to the surface of waiting times to invasion in order to characterize the vector field of spread. - Using this method, we estimate with statistical uncertainties the speed and direction of spread at each location. Simulations from a stratified diffusion model verify the accuracy of our method. - We show how we may link local rates of spread to environmental covariates for two case studies: the spread of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), and hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in North America. We provide an R-package that automates the calculations for any spatially referenced waiting time data. © 2019 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2294en
dc.identifier.issn0962-8452en
dc.identifier.issue1894en
dc.identifier.other2294en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/88838en
dc.identifier.volume286en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherRoyal Society Publishingen
dc.rightsCreative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/en
dc.subjectGaussian processen
dc.subjectGypsy mothen
dc.subjectHemlock woolly adelgiden
dc.subjectInvasive speciesen
dc.subjectSpatial gradientsen
dc.titleQuantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spreaden
dc.title.serialProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciencesen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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