Testing the link between public intervention and food price variability: Evidence from rice markets in the Philippines

This paper applies a model of food price variability to examine the outcomes of government interventions in the rice market in the Philippines. The authors describe the simple econometric model that evaluates the changes in farmgate and retail level prices caused by changes in government stock. They use monthly price and stock data from 1975 to 1992 to quantify the impact of government buffer-stock programs on both seasonal and annual variability in rice prices for producers and consumers. The results suggest that at the aggregate level, NFA stock changes do not exert any significant stabilization on price changes - neither seasonally nor annually.