Impact of early phase COVID-19 precautionary behaviors on seasonal influenza in Hong Kong: A time-series modeling approach

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dc.contributor.authorLin, Chun-Pangen
dc.contributor.authorDorigatti, Ilariaen
dc.contributor.authorTsui, Kwok-Leungen
dc.contributor.authorXie, Minen
dc.contributor.authorLing, Man-Hoen
dc.contributor.authorYuan, Hsiang-Yuen
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-21T14:50:45Zen
dc.date.available2023-04-21T14:50:45Zen
dc.date.issued2022-11en
dc.description.abstractBackgroundBefore major non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented, seasonal incidence of influenza in Hong Kong showed a rapid and unexpected reduction immediately following the early spread of COVID-19 in mainland China in January 2020. This decline was presumably associated with precautionary behavioral changes (e.g., wearing face masks and avoiding crowded places). Knowing their effectiveness on the transmissibility of seasonal influenza can inform future influenza prevention strategies. MethodsWe estimated the effective reproduction number (R-t) of seasonal influenza in 2019/20 winter using a time-series susceptible-infectious-recovered (TS-SIR) model with a Bayesian inference by integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). After taking account of changes in underreporting and herd immunity, the individual effects of the behavioral changes were quantified. FindingsThe model-estimated mean R-t reduced from 1.29 (95%CI, 1.27-1.32) to 0.73 (95%CI, 0.73-0.74) after the COVID-19 community spread began. Wearing face masks protected 17.4% of people (95%CI, 16.3-18.3%) from infections, having about half of the effect as avoiding crowded places (44.1%, 95%CI, 43.5-44.7%). Within the current model, if more than 85% of people had adopted both behaviors, the initial R-t could have been less than 1. ConclusionOur model results indicate that wearing face masks and avoiding crowded places could have potentially significant suppressive impacts on influenza.en
dc.description.notesThis research was funded by the Health and Medical Research Fund (COVID190215), the City University of Hong Kong (7200573 and 9610416), the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (213494/Z/18/Z), and Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Commission (InnoHK Project CIMDA).en
dc.description.sponsorshipHealth and Medical Research Fund [COVID190215]; City University of Hong Kong [7200573, 9610416]; Wellcome Trust; Royal Society [213494/Z/18/Z]; Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Commission (InnoHK Project CIMDA)en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.992697en
dc.identifier.eissn2296-2565en
dc.identifier.other992697en
dc.identifier.pmid36504934en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/114742en
dc.identifier.volume10en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherFrontiersen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectinfluenzaen
dc.subjectface masken
dc.subjectsocial distancingen
dc.subjecttime-series analysisen
dc.subjectinfectious disease modelingen
dc.titleImpact of early phase COVID-19 precautionary behaviors on seasonal influenza in Hong Kong: A time-series modeling approachen
dc.title.serialFrontiers in Public Healthen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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