Two-phase Monte Carlo simulation for partitioning the effects of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in TMDL modeling

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dc.contributor.authorMishra, Anuragen
dc.contributor.authorAhmadisharaf, Ebrahimen
dc.contributor.authorBenham, Brian L.en
dc.contributor.authorGallagher, Daniel L.en
dc.contributor.authorReckhow, Kenneth H.en
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Eric P.en
dc.contributor.departmentCivil and Environmental Engineeringen
dc.contributor.departmentBiological Systems Engineeringen
dc.contributor.departmentStatisticsen
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-08T13:33:46Zen
dc.date.available2019-04-08T13:33:46Zen
dc.date.issued2018-10-29en
dc.description.abstractA two-phase Monte Carlo simulation (TPMCS) uncertainty analysis framework is used to analyze epistemic and aleatory uncertainty associated with simulated exceedances of an in-stream fecal coliform (FC) water quality criterion when using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF). The TPMCS framework is compared with a single-phase or standard Monte Carlo simulation (SPMCS) analysis. Both techniques are used to assess two total maximum daily load (TMDL) pollutant allocation scenarios. The application of TPMCS illustrates that cattle directly depositing FC in the stream is a greater source of epistemic uncertainty than FC loading from cropland overland runoff, the two sources specifically targeted for reduction in the allocation scenario. This distinction is not possible using SPMCS. Although applying the TPMCS framework involves subjective decisions about how selected model parameters are considered within the framework, this uncertainty analysis approach is transparent and the results provide information that can be used by decision makers when considering pollution control measure implementation alternatives, including quantifying the level of confidence in achieving applicable water quality standards. © American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001731en
dc.identifier.issn10840699en
dc.identifier.issue1en
dc.identifier.other4018058en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/88860en
dc.identifier.volume24en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherASCEen
dc.rightsCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectNon-point-source pollution managementen
dc.subjectTotal maximum daily load (TMDL)en
dc.subjectTwo-phase Monte Carlo simulationen
dc.subjectUncertainty analysisen
dc.subjectWater quality modelingen
dc.titleTwo-phase Monte Carlo simulation for partitioning the effects of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in TMDL modelingen
dc.title.serialJournal of Hydrologic Engineeringen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten

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