Scholarly Works, Agricultural and Applied Economics

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https://hdl.handle.net/10919/24298
Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship

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Browsing Scholarly Works, Agricultural and Applied Economics by Author "Adjemian, Michael K."

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    Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?
    Karali, Berna; Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Irwin, Scott H.; Adjemian, Michael K.; Johansson, Robert C. (2019-04)
    This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market "surprise," is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.
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    When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?
    Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Cao, Xiang; Karali, Berna; Irwin, Scott H.; Adjemian, Michael K.; Johansson, Robert C. (2021-06)
    This study compares the impact of Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Crop Production, Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks, WASDE, Cattle on Feed, and Hogs and Pigs reports on corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, live cattle, and lean hogs markets over 1985-2018. Simultaneous releases of several reports are handled by evaluating the impact of report clusters. Our approach allows us to demonstrate the relative impact of various information releases and shows when the markets tend to be affected the most. The findings of this study provide evidence and guidance for future policy decision regarding the role of USDA information in modern agricultural markets.