Scholarly Works, Agricultural and Applied Economics

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Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship

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What drives labor force participation rate variability? The case of West Virginia
Beverly, Josh; Stewart, Shamar L.; Neill, Clinton L. (2024-08-22)
This study examines the dynamics of labor force participation rates across counties in West Virginia to better understand local labor market integration and the factors influencing fluctuations in participation. Drawing on county-level data from January 1990 to July 2020, the research employs a dynamic factor model to decompose labor force participation rates into latent factors at the state, metropolitan/non-metropolitan, and county levels. The findings reveal a general lack of labor market integration across West Virginia, highlighting potential opportunities for growth through enhanced integration. Further analysis using panel data models identifies key determinants of labor force participation, including personal income, education, infrastructure, and the prominence of industries such as agriculture and natural gas. The results underscore the necessity for targeted county-level policies to bolster employment and promote economic expansion within the state.
The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data
Gouel, Christophe; Legrand, Nicolas (2025)
We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural shocks and show that exploiting information on both prices and quantities is critical for relaxing previous restrictive identifying assumptions and assessing the empirical consistency of the model’s features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world’s most important staple food products. Our estimations show that supply shocks are the main drivers of food market dynamics and that our storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price persistence so far the subject of a long-standing puzzle.
Are Loans to Minority Owned Firms Mispriced?
Bradford, William D.; Wang, Chunbei; Lofstrom, Magnus; Verchot, Michael (American Economic Association, 2025)
The role of nutrient credit trading for total maximum daily load compliance by the urban stormwater sector: Evidence from Virginia's Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
Ferris, William N.; Stephenson, Stephen Kurt (Wiley, 2023-12-19)
Water quality credit trading has been advanced as a cost-effective means of achieving regulatory compliance. However, the volume of trading activity in operational programs is typically less than estimated by empirical analysis. The compliance behavior of Virginia Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems (MS4s) is studied in response to the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load (TMDL) to understand the circumstances in which trading is adopted, the extent to which trading is adopted, and the factors contributing to trading's use or nonuse. Results indicate that MS4s generally prefer to install their own pollutant control measures rather than trade. Many MS4s, however, rely on trade as a backup compliance option. MS4s favor bay compliance options that help meet other local management objectives (erosion control, infrastructure protection, and reductions toward local water quality objectives) and provide long term pollutant control benefits. Low cost term credits do not provide such benefits. For perpetual credits, MS4s use a variety of strategies to substantially reduce the cost differences between trade and nontrade compliance options.
Shaming, stringency, and shirking: Evidence from food-safety inspections
Bovay, John (Wiley, 2025-01)
This paper examines the responses of chicken producers to public disclosure of quality information (or categorization) regarding Salmonella in chicken carcasses. Producers exert effort to attain better categorization and shirk when failing to meet the thresholds required for better categorization. Public disclosure reduces this shirking effect. However, some producers shirk even under public disclosure when the threshold for disclosure is too stringent. The results suggest that the most effective quality disclosure policies would either disclose continuous (noncategorical) information or impose fines or other sanctions on producers attaining the poorest quality.
Paying for convenience and higher micronutrients: Consumers’ willingness to pay for pre-cooked bean products in Malawi and Zambia
Katungi, Enid; Larochelle, Catherine; Magreta, Ruth; Banda, Arnold (2024-07-30)
Food consumption habits in sub-Saharan Africa have been influenced by urbanization and globalization, leading to unhealthy diets. Legumes, such as beans, have been part of balanced diets, however, their long cooking time has discouraged consumption. Using an experimental auction, we assess consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for pre-cooked beans to address long cooking times. In Zambia, the auction included two products, dehydrated beans and ready-to-eat beans, while in Malawi, only dehydrated beans were considered. The auction had three bidding rounds. The first round replicates standard food purchasing decisions in stores. In the second round, participants were informed about product convenience (time and cost saving), and in the last round, about the benefits of consuming high-iron beans (of which the products were made). Our results show a high WTP for pre-cooked bean products in three locations: Zambia urban, Malawi urban, and rural. Most consumers had WTPs that were higher than the market price. Information provision increased the cumulative WTP by 27% for dehydrated beans and 22% for ready-to-eat beans in Zambia, and by 33.5% for dehydrated beans in Malawi. Our results imply that by extensively promoting the advantages of these products among both urban and rural consumers, processors can expand their market share and recoup their marketing expenses.
Measuring the impact of stress-tolerant rice variety adoption: Evidence on input use and yield in Nepal
Vaiknoras, Kate; Larochelle, Catherine; Alwang, Jeffrey R. (Wiley, 2024-11-21)
New agricultural technologies, such as stress-tolerant rice varieties (STRVs), that reduce yield risk can modify farmers’ production decisions. This article explores how STRV adoption affects farmer decision-making and productivity in Nepal in a non-drought year. STRVs are bred to be high-yielding and tolerant to climate shocks such as drought. To assess the effect of input measurements on treatment effects, we collected information from 900 households on STRV adoption and input use. We also conducted a survey experiment in which half of sampled households were randomly assigned to answer additional, more detailed questions on agricultural inputs. Farmers apply more total chemical fertilizer, pesticides, early-season chemical fertilizer, and land preparation labor to plots planted with STRVs compared to traditional varieties (TVs). Detailed input data enhances our understanding of how this “crowding-in” effect of STRV adoption on input use compares with other high-yielding varieties. While farmers increase application of a subset of these inputs on other improved variety types such as hybrids, results suggest that crowd-in effects are most consistent for STRVs. In the absence of drought, STRVs also provide a similar yield boost and yield variance reduction over TVs compared to other, non-stress tolerant improved varieties. Results suggest that improved varietal adoption, and STRV adoption in particular, can improve household productivity and modernization of agriculture.
Private sector led multi-stakeholder platforms positively influence certified common bean seed supply in Malawi
Gondwe, Wanangwa; Phiri, Alexander; Birachi, Eliud; Magreta, Ruth; Larochelle, Catherine; Machira, Kennedy; Mutua, Mercy; Rubyogo, Jean Claude; Nkhata, Wilson (Cell Press, 2024-08-24)
Common bean yields in Malawi remain low, primarily due to the use of low-yielding, recycled local seeds by most smallholder farmers. The low uptake of certified bean seed is attributed to limited incentives from the private sector. This study hypothesizes that the sustainable adoption of market-preferred varieties can be achieved by synchronizing and linking seed production to the grain market through committed value chain actors in a private sector-led multi-stakeholder platform. This paper examines the role of private sector-led multi-stakeholder platforms in the supply of certified common bean seed in Malawi. The research draws on both qualitative and quantitative primary data collected through a semi-structured questionnaire and interviews with key informants. Data were analyzed using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model. The results indicate that several variables representing membership in multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs) significantly affect the supply of certified common bean seed. Participation in MSPs, contractual arrangements, market structure, extension services, and seed demonstrations positively influenced seed supply. The findings underscore the need for a well-coordinated multi-stakeholder platform to enhance the supply of certified common bean seed, supported by effective policies and incentives from policymakers.
Undergraduate research in the Andes: Overcoming barriers to developing-country farm-household focused analysis
Alwang, Jeffrey R.; Barrera, Victor; Bosch, Darrell; Chen, Susan; Delgado, Jorge A.; Larochelle, Catherine; Norton, George W. (Applied and Agricultural Economics Association, 2023-09-12)
This paper provides a qualitative description of a long-term engagement of undergraduate students in an immersive research experience in Ecuador. We describe and analyze factors related to operation under common challenges to field research in developing countries. We address issues of incentives and barriers to faculty and students interested in pursuing international undergraduate research. Our program has engaged students at Virginia Tech eight times since 2007, including a total of 50 U.S. undergraduates, and was designed to attract students of all socioeconomic strata. It begins with a Spring semester three-credit class on research methods, household survey administration, and data analysis and inference. During this time, partners in Ecuador are introduced through remote meetings and joint work on the survey. In mid-May, we fly to Quito, where students take language and culture lessons, finalize the survey, and gain exposure to the various institutions involved in the research. After two weeks, the group travels to the remote survey location, currently near Riobamba in Chimborazo Province. Four weeks of data collection paired with local students follow. Finally, data are analyzed, and a report is prepared and presented to an advisory group in the subsequent Fall semester. The programmatic goals were to (1) provide undergraduates with a substantive research experience in a developing country; and (2) provide useful data for the project as to the attitudes of Ecuadorian farmers toward adoption of environmentally friendly agricultural practices. The program is built around several principles: (i) end-to-end student engagement from problem identification through presentation of findings to stakeholders; (ii) financial accessibility—all participation costs are covered; (iii) primary data collection from farm-households in the study area; (iv) full partnership with host-country researchers and students; and (v) supportive and complementary past and ongoing agronomic research in the study area. Lessons include challenges related to program structure; administration—the Institutional Review Board (IRB) clearance, travel approvals, and financial matters; technical challenges—questionnaire design, CAPI surveying, teaching, and programming data analysis; and field supervision, language, and cultural awareness. Linkages to high-quality ongoing agronomic research allow the socioeconomic research to focus on technology adoption and technology-relevant factors such as profitability, risk, and access to inputs. These themes are well-addressed through socioeconomic research.
An Ex Ante Analysis of the Effects of Climate on Agricultural Production Risk
Chavas, Jean-Paul; Zhang, Wei (2024-12-17)
This paper investigates the dynamic and spatial determinants of the distribution of agricultural productivity around the world, with a focus on the effects of climate on production risk. Distinguishing between climate and weather, the analysis is based on an exante approach where we treat weather shocks as part of the error term and proceed evaluating the probability distribution of agricultural productivity conditional on climate. The econometric analysis relies on a two-step approach: 1) a quantile autoregression (QAR) model representing the dynamics of the distribution of agricultural productivity; and 2) a copula capturing the spatial distribution of productivity across countries. The analysis is applied to the evolution of agricultural productivity (as measured by a TFP measure) in 160 countries over the period 1961-2016. We document that higher temperatures lead to large increases in production risk in agriculture. The adverse effects of higher temperature are found to be more severe in countries exhibiting low agricultural productivity. We show how the spatial codependence of production risk varies across latitude and longitude. The negative codependence across countries means that spatial diversification tends to reduce food insecurity at the world level. This effect contributes to dimming the adverse effects of rising temperatures on world food insecurity.
Economic Analysis of the Environmental Sustainability of Agriculture: Recent Studies using Quasi-Experimental Methods
Zhang, Wei (Emerald, 2022-01)
Purpose: The purpose of this review article is to demonstrate how the quasi-experimental approach has been used to study environmental and natural resource issues related to agricultural production. Design/methodology/approach: This review article first provides a short introduction to the quasi-experimental approach using the potential outcomes framework and then uses studies on the environmental sustainability of agricultural production to illustrate how quasi-experimental methods have been applied. Papers reviewed consist of studies that estimate the environmental externalities from agricultural production, evaluate agri-environmental and other related policies and programs, and demonstrate issues related to on-farm resource use and climate adaptation. Findings: Difference-in-differences (DID) and two-way fixed effects methods that utilize the spatial and temporal variation in panel data are widely used to estimate the causal impact of changes in agricultural production and policy on the environment. Utilizing the discontinuities and limits created by agricultural policies and regulations, local treatment effects on land and other input use are estimated using regression discontinuity (RD) or instrumental variable (IV) methods with cross-sectional data. Originality/value: Challenges faced by the food systems have made agricultural sustainability more critical than ever. Over the past three decades, the quasi-experimental approach has become the powerhouse of applied economic research. This review article focuses on quasi-experimental studies on the environmental sustainability of agriculture to provide methodological insights and to highlight gaps in the economics literature of agricultural sustainability.
Long-Term Effects of Nitrogen and Tillage on Yields and Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Irrigated Corn
Delgado, Jorge A.; D’Adamo, Robert E.; Villacis, Alexis H.; Halvorson, Ardell D.; Stewart, Catherine E.; Floyd, Bradley A.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Manter, Daniel K.; Alwang, Jeffrey R. (MDPI, 2024-10-07)
By tonnage, corn (Zea mays L.) is the #1 crop produced globally, and recent research has suggested that no-till (NT) systems can lead to reduced yields of this important crop. Additionally, there is a lack of long-term data about the effects of tillage and N management on cropping systems. Corn is the most nitrogen (N)-fertilized crop in the USA, and N losses to the environment contribute to significant impacts on air and water quality. We conducted long-term studies on conventional tillage (CT) and conservation tillage systems, such as strip tillage (ST) and NT, under different N rates. We found that immediately after conversion to NT, yields from NT were significantly lower than yields from CT (p < 0.1), but after five years of NT, the NT yields were 1.5% higher than the CT yields (p < 0.1). Initially, the NT yields were lower than the ST (p < 0.01), but after seven years of NT, the NT yields were comparable to ST grain yields. Although the total aboveground N uptake with NT immediately after conversion to NT was lower than with CT and ST, these differences were not significant in the long run. The nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) with NT increased over time. The present work highlights the importance of long-term research for determining the cumulative impacts of best management practices such as NT. We found that NT becomes a more viable practice after five or seven years of implementation, demonstrating the high importance of long-term research.
Student Food Security Status at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech Food Access and Wellbeing Survey
Holmes, Chanita; Hall, Ralph; Misyak, Sarah; Olayemi, Victor (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2024-10-02)
There has been a growing acknowledgment and concern about college students experiencing food insecurity at institutions of higher education [1]. Experiencing food insecurity can impact educational attainment and performance as well as student quality of life [2]. This report describes the findings of the 2023 Virginia Tech Student Food Access and Wellbeing Survey, which was administered online during the Spring of 2023. The survey aimed to examine the level of food security among Virginia Tech undergraduate and graduate students.
GMO, Bioengineered Labeling, and Non-GMO Food
Pierce, Timothy; Bovay, John (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2021)
The acronym GMO stands for Genetically Modified Organisms. Terms with similar meanings include: Genetically Engineered (GE), Genetically Modified (GM), Transgenic, Biotech, Bioengineered, or Products Made with Modern Biotechnology. This factsheet, which accompanies a webinar on “Non-GMO, GMO, and bioengineered food labeling”, provides an overview of the definitions of these labels in the United States. The webinar and factsheet are part of the Virginia Sustainable Farms and Agribusiness Education Initiative offered by Virginia Tech’s Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and Virginia Cooperative Extension. More information about the program is available at https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/va-sustainable-farms-agribusinesses.html. More information about GMOs can be found at websites created by Purdue University (2016) and the University of Connecticut (2017), and other references listed at the end of this factsheet.
The American Rescue Plan: Farms, Food, and Families
Pierce, Tim; Bovay, John (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2021)
This publication, which accompanies a webinar on “The American Rescue Plan: Farms, Food, and Families”, provides an overview of the American Rescue Plan and its implications for farms, food, and families. The webinar and handout are part of the Virginia Sustainable Farms and Agribusiness Education Initiative offered by Virginia Tech’s Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and Virginia Cooperative Extension. More information about the program is available at https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/va-sustainable-farms-agribusinesses.html. The webinar is available at: https://video.vt.edu/media/1_sb3hzeg1.
On-Farm Energy Management and Renewable Energy
Pierce, Timothy; Bovay, John; Ignosh, John (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2022)
This handout, which accompanies a webinar on “Wind, solar, and geothermal energy production on farms”, provides an overview of considerations farms should make when thinking about energy investments. The webinar and handout are part of the Virginia Sustainable Farms and Agribusiness Education Initiative offered by Virginia Tech’s Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics and Virginia Cooperative Extension. More information about the program is available at https://aaec.vt.edu/extension/va-sustainable-farms-agribusinesses.html. The webinar is available at: https://video.vt.edu/media/1_ros06lae.
Demystifying Food Labels for Meat and Poultry Products Part II: Labels for Specific Products
Neill, Clinton L.; Qi, Tao; Bovay, John (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2024)
Labels on food products can inform consumers about quality information and product differentiation, in other words, what features, or attributes distinguish it from similar products. Sometimes labels can signal to consumers that the products on which they appear have a different taste or texture than other similar products. Other times, labels reflect information about how the product was produced, which may not affect the taste or texture. Producers can use product differentiation and communicate information about food quality or attributes to consumers using labels. This publication and an accompanying publication provide information to help consumers understand and interpret labels on meat and poultry products, and help producers understand how they may use labels to differentiate their products and increase their profit margins. “Demystifying Food Labels for Meat and Poultry Products Part I: Overview” (VCE publication AAEC-229NP) provides basic information about meat and poultry labels and examples of labels that may be found on multiple different categories of products. The labels discussed in this publication are specific to certain types of meat (beef and lamb) and poultry.
Demystifying Food Labels for Meat and Poultry Products Part I: Overview
Neill, Clinton L.; Qi, Tao; Bovay, John (Virginia Cooperative Extension, 2024)
Food labels often represent credence attributes, which are qualities consumers cannot verify even after consumption. This creates an information asymmetry between producers and consumers (Kuchler et al., 2017). For producers and consumers alike, the meaning behind the labels found on meat products may be confusing. The purpose of this publication is to help improve buyer understanding of retail meat and poultry product labels using text and infographics. Each infographic contains basic facts and straightforward definitions of common words and phrases included on labels used on meat and poultry products found in grocery stores nationwide.
Climate Change and Its Positive and Negative Impacts on Irrigated Corn Yields in a Region of Colorado (USA)
Delgado, Jorge A.; D’Adamo, Robert E.; Villacis, Alexis H.; Halvorson, Ardell D.; Stewart, Catherine E.; Alwang, Jeffrey R.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Manter, Daniel K.; Floyd, Bradley A. (MDPI, 2024-08-09)
The future of humanity depends on successfully adapting key cropping systems for food security, such as corn (Zea mays L.), to global climatic changes, including changing air temperatures. We monitored the effects of climate change on harvested yields using long-term research plots that were established in 2001 near Fort Collins, Colorado, and long-term average yields in the region (county). We found that the average temperature for the growing period of the irrigated corn (May to September) has increased at a rate of 0.023 °C yr⁻¹, going from 16.5 °C in 1900 to 19.2 °C in 2019 (p < 0.001), but precipitation did not change (p = 0.897). Average minimum (p < 0.001) temperatures were positive predictors of yields. This response to temperature depended on N fertilizer rates, with the greatest response at intermediate fertilizer rates. Maximum (p < 0.05) temperatures and growing degree days (GDD; p < 0.01) were also positive predictors of yields. We propose that the yield increases with higher temperatures observed here are likely only applicable to irrigated corn and that irrigation is a good climate change mitigation and adaptation practice. However, since pan evaporation significantly increased from 1949 to 2019 (p < 0.001), the region’s dryland corn yields are expected to decrease in the future from heat and water stress associated with increasing temperatures and no increases in precipitation. This study shows that increases in GDD and the minimum temperatures that are contributing to a changing climate in the area are important parameters that are contributing to higher yields in irrigated systems in this region.
The Cost of Inaction: Impacts of WFP Assistance Shortfalls on Food Security Outcomes in Somalia
Kagin, Justin; Kumar, Deepak; Gupta, Anubhab; Taylor, J. Edward; Amondi, Edith; Clough, Alice; Gualtieri, Alberto; Krishnaswamy, Siddarth; Leaduma, Amos; Monetta, Cinzia; Nanayakkara, Laksiri; Mesa, Joshua (WFP/Geneva Costopulos, 2024)
Millions of Somalis face hunger and malnutrition due to ongoing conflict and climate disruptions. Somalia’s food systems are strained by a combination of weather shocks, civil conflicts, environmental distress, increasing food costs, and limited infrastructure and investments (WFP Somalia Country Brief 2023). The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has been working extensively in Somalia, expanding its humanitarian activities in recent years in response to the severe drought of 2020-2023. In January 2023 alone, it distributed USD 45 million in cash and 7.1 MT in in-kind food assistance to 4.1 million people in the country, including vulnerable internally displaced persons (IDPs) and resident (non-IDPs) households. The soaring demand for humanitarian assistance is straining an already underfunded WFP. WFP estimated a funding gap of USD 378 million from November 2023 to April 2024, only providing food assistance to less than half of those people most in need (WFP Emergency-Somalia website).

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