Scholarly Works, Agricultural and Applied Economics

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Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship

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Consumers' Knowledge and Willingness-to-Pay for Wet-Aged and Dry-Aged Beef
Ortez, Mario A. (Purdue University Press, 2025-12-12)
Divergent Market Movements on Varying Beef Cuts
Ortez, Mario A. (Purdue University Press, 2025-12-12)
Thoughts on Value, Cost, and Price
Ortez, Mario A. (Purdue University Press, 2025-12-15)
In Favor of Differentiation
Ortez, Mario A. (Purdue University Press, 2025-12-15)
Demand for Plant-Based Meat Alternatives and the Role of Habit Formation and Variety Seeking
Neuhofer, Zachary T.; Lusk, Jayson L.; Ortez, Mario A. (Cambridge University Press, 2025-11)
Novel plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) have the potential to disrupt traditional meat industries, but only if consumers substitute PBMAs for meat over time. This study uses weekly household scanner data from 2018 to 2020, to estimate demand for PBMAs in the ground meat market. We use a basket-based demand approach by estimating a multivariate logit model (MVL) to determine cross-product relationships between PBMAs, ground turkey, ground chicken, and ground beef, while simultaneously exploring the role of prior consumption habits and demographics on demand. The only demographic characteristic affecting PBMA demand is the household education level of having a college degree when controlling for other factors. We found no significant seasonal difference in purchasing patterns, after controlling for cross-product effects, prior purchases, and demographics. Demand for PBMAs is driven by habit formation rather than variety seeking, as higher past purchases of PBMAs lead to a higher likelihood of current PBMA purchases. Consumers with higher past ground beef purchases are less likely to choose PBMAs, suggesting growth of this new product is coming from consumers on the margin rather than from heavy beef buyers substituting away from their traditional purchases. PBMAs and ground beef are utility complements with all meat products, suggesting that traditional meat and PBMA companies, along with retailers, should explore synergies in product marketing and offerings.
Improving nitrogen management in US agriculture: Yield Reserve versus land retirement
Hu, Chenyang; Zhang, Wei; Bosch, Darrell (Wiley, 2025-11)
Pressure to protect and restore water quality continues to drive demand for greater reductions in nitrogen (N) loads from US agriculture. Researchers have been evaluating agricultural production choices along both the extensive and intensive margins to improve ecosystem services. This study uses the US Department of Agriculture's Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model, a partial equilibrium simulation model that integrates agricultural production, land use, and environmental outcomes, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a Yield Reserve Program compared to an expansion of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on revenues, costs, output, and potential reductions in N loads from the production of 10 major crops, both nationally and regionally. The findings indicate that the Yield Reserve Program outperforms the CRP in terms of achieving N reduction under equivalent government budget expenditures. However, the N reduction under the Yield Reserve Program is partially offset by the “rebound effect” on corn (Zea mays L.) acreage whereby corn acreage increases with the subsidized N reduction. The CRP expansion demonstrates a strong “slippage effect,” where the expansion of CRP acreage simply brings marginal land into crop production resulting in a smaller-than-expected N reduction. Sensitivity analysis shows that higher percentage of Yield Reserve in terms of the amount of subsidized N reduction tends to be more cost-effective, and more inelastic land supply tends to reduce the “slippage” of CRP expansion.
Effect of maturity at harvest of small grain grasses on the nutritional composition of forage and ration formulation
Ferreira, Gonzalo; Teets, C. L.; Galyon, Hailey; Cappellina, Anna; Schultz, Milton; Payne, Kathryn; Stewart, Shamar; Thomason, Wade E. (2025-02-09)
We hypothesized that, relative to harvesting small-grain grasses at the soft dough stage (SFT) of maturity, harvesting small-grain grasses at the boot stage (BT) of maturity would result in less expensive dairy rations when commodity prices are high but not when commodity prices are low. Small plots of small-grain grasses were planted during the fall of 2020 and 2021 in Blacksburg, Blackstone, and Orange, Virginia. In each year and location, 2 varieties of barley, 2 varieties of rye, and 4 varieties of triticale were planted in plots replicated 6 times, yielding 288 plots. Within each year and location, we harvested half of the plots at BT and the other half at SFT. For each of the 6 small-grain grasses, we formulated 8 rations according to 8 different scenarios using the least-cost optimizer. The scenarios included high and low commodity prices, high and low dietary forage (60% and 40% forage, respectively), and the inclusion of small-grain grasses harvested at BT or SFT. Harvesting at SFT yielded 107% to 205% more DM than harvesting at BT. Relative to BT, small-grain grasses harvested at SFT had greater concentrations of OM, NDF, ADF, ADL, and starch but lower concentrations of CP. Relative to BT, small-grain grasses harvested at SFT also had a greater concentration of undegraded NDF (NDF basis). Species had minimal influence on the nutritional quality of small-grain grasses for silage. Under a low-price scenario, the ration formulation system ignored all 6 small-grain grass silages and included corn silage as the only forage source when we did not limit its inclusion. Under a high-price scenario, the ration formulation system included all 6 small-grain grass silages when formulating low-forage diets with unlimited corn silage. However, a preference between BT and SFT stages did not exist, with the optimizer not consistently selecting a specific maturity stage. After evaluating the yields, the chemical composition, and the effects on ration formulation in this study, future studies should aim to evaluate the influence of maturity at harvest of small-grain grasses on cow performance and environmental impacts.
Extreme Weather Events and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity Growth
Zhang, Wei (Wiley, 2025-11-20)
The productivity of the agricultural sector is crucial for food security in a changing climate. This study estimates the impacts of extreme weather events on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate change on agriculture. Using a dynamic panel data model, I estimate both the contemporaneous and cumulative long-run effects of extreme weather on TFP growth. The estimates suggest that extreme weather events have on average a negative and statistically significant impact on agricultural TFP growth rate. In a year when the total number of extreme weather events is at the sample mean, the TFP growth rate would be lowered by approximately 0.53 percentage points, with a smaller cumulative long-run effect of 0.40 percentage points. Across event types, the estimated impacts are all negative and are statistically significant for storms, droughts, and wildfires in most specifications. The estimates are robust across measures of extreme weather, model specifications, and subsamples. I also show that extreme-weather- induced loss in TFP growth is mainly driven by reductions in output growth, while the impacts on input growth vary across event types.
An Ex Ante Analysis of the Effects of Climate on Agricultural Production Risk
Chavas, Jean-Paul; Zhang, Wei (2025-05-01)
We investigate the dynamic and spatial determinants of the distribution of agricultural productivity around the world, with a focus on the effects of climate on production risk. We treat weather shocks as part of the error term and proceed evaluating the probability distribution of agricultural productivity conditional on climate. The adverse effects of higher temperature are found to be more severe in countries exhibiting low agricultural productivity. The negative codependence across countries means that spatial diversification tends to reduce food insecurity at the world level. This effect contributes to dimming the adverse effects of rising temperatures on world food insecurity.
Yield Impacts of Agricultural Conservation Programs
Zhang, Wei; Li, Yanggu; Bovay, John (Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, 2025-09)
Conservation programs funded and managed by the USDA have two key goals: protecting natural resources and supporting farm profitability. The environmental benefits of these programs, such as reduced soil erosion and improved habitat for wildlife, are important for societal well-being. Their impacts on farm productivity and profitability are equally important. Conceptually, conservation programs could increase yields because some conservation efforts boost soil health on the fields where they are implemented or on nearby fields. They could also increase county-level yields through retirements of less-productive land. However, if there are tradeoffs between yield and ecological functions, or if some productive land is taken out of production, then conservation programs could decrease yields. This article provides evidence that USDA conservation programs can increase agricultural yields. Our findings make a compelling case for continued funding of USDA conservation programs that could simultaneously boost agricultural productivity and improve environmental outcomes.
What is online Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program shopping worth? An implicit wage rate approach using meal-kit pricing and time-use data
Davis, George C.; Pierce, Timothy; Wilbur, Jessica; Yang, Jinyang (Cambridge University Press, 2025-04)
In 2023 all Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants were allowed to start grocery shopping online. This paper provides the first answer to the question: What is online shopping worth to the SNAP participant in dollars? Using meal-kit pricing and time-use data, an implicit wage rate and dollar value distribution are estimated for time saved in home food production from online grocery shopping. We report the 95^th, 75^th, 50^th, 25^th, and 5^th percentile results. We simulate saving 50%, 75%, and 90% of grocery shopping time and estimate the savings per hour per meal. For example, if online shopping saved 75% of shopping time, the median saving per hour per meal would be $2.59. If a family of four made 15 to 30 meals a month, this corresponds to an implicit 5% to 11% increase in the benefits per month due to the time saved. The implicit wage rate provides simple and elegant economic insights into many aspects of food production and consumption not obtainable by just considering the money price.
Impacts of Financial Literacy Training on Refugee Youth Outcomes
Das, Nandini; Gupta, Anubhab; Mingo, Cristobal; Zhu, Heng (Routledge, 2025-04-14)
As humanitarian assistance from international organizations transitions from in-kind- to cash- aid, and increasingly through digital payments, the importance of digital financial literacy to complement cash transfer programs has grown significantly. This paper evaluates the impact of a financial literacy training program on refugee youth outcomes in Uganda. We adopt an approach that closely emulates a natural experiment by leveraging the staggered geographic rollout of the program to identify its impacts. Using reduced-form econometric analyses, robust to various specifications, we find that participation in the training program is associated with significant positive effects on financial knowledge and financial behavior among young refugees. The findings are important because financial knowledge is essential for saving decisions, responsible borrowing, business operations, and various other life goals among refugees. Our results also suggest that the training program boosted youth’s confidence in terms of integrating with the host population.
Production performance, nutrient digestibility, and milk fatty acid profile of lactating dairy cows fed diets containing triticale silage of different maturities and different dietary forage levels
Schultz, M. E.; Corl, Benjamin A.; Payne, Kathryn M.; Stewart, Shamar L.; Thomason, Wade E.; Ferreira, Gonzalo (Elsevier, 2025-09)
This study aimed to evaluate the production performance, the milk fatty acid profile, and the nutrient digestibility of high-producing dairy cows fed high-forage (HF) or low-forage (LF) diets containing triticale silages harvested at either the boot stage (BT) or the soft-dough stage (SFT) of maturity. A 10-ha field was seeded with 105 kg/ha of triticale. Half of the field was harvested at BT and the other half at SFT. The harvested forage was ensiled in separate concrete-walled bunker silos for at least 60 d. The BT silage had 97.0% OM, 9.6% CP, 61.0% NDF, 42.0% ADF, 8.9% ADL, and 1.6% starch, whereas the SFT silage had 97.3% OM, 8.3% CP, 63.0% NDF, 44.0% ADF, 10.2% ADL, and 3.7% starch. The similar nutritional compositions of the 2 silages might be related to splitting the field in 2 halves that reflected differences in growing conditions of the crop. The animal study involved 8 primiparous (584 ± 21 kg BW and 105 ± 11 DIM) and 16 multiparous (710 ± 57 kg BW and 105 ± 18 DIM) Holstein cows. The experiment was a replicated 4 × 4 Latin square design with 21-d periods, with a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments. The HF diets were formulated to contain 55% dietary forage, and the LF diets were formulated to contain 38% dietary forage. Cows were housed in a freestall barn and fed once daily. Cows fed BT and SFT diets had similar DMI, but cows fed LF diets had higher DMI than cows fed HF diets. Feeding BT diets resulted in more milk production (43.5 vs. 42.4 kg/d) and higher milk protein (1.30 vs. 1.23 kg/d) and lactose yields (2.13 vs. 2.04 kg/d) compared with feeding SFT diets. Energy-corrected milk yield did not differ between BT and SFT diets. Cows fed HF diets produced less milk (41.1 vs. 43.0 kg/d) but tended to increase milk fat concentration (4.56% vs. 4.37%) compared with cows fed LF diets. Milk protein concentration was similar between cows fed HF and LF diets, but cows fed HF diets increased lactose concentration (5.02% vs. 4.80%). Triticale maturity did not affect NDF digestibility, but LF diets improved NDF digestibility (45.2 vs. 41.7%). No difference existed in de novo fatty acids between cows fed the BT and SFT diets despite the higher concentrations of CLA trans-10, cis-12 fatty acid and slightly higher concentrations of C18:1 trans-10 fatty acid. Under the conditions of this study, production performance did not appear to be sensitive to diets with triticale silage harvested at different maturity stages, and this occurred with both HF and LF diets.
Groundwater management in Nebraska: Governing the commons through local resource districts
Stephenson, Stephen Kurt (University of New Mexico, 1996-09)
In many areas of the Great Plains, a large share of the responsibility for establishing groundwater use and access controls rests with local resource districts. Many policy observers identify local inaction as a contributing cause to the rapid depletion of groundwater supplies in the region. Yet, the charge that local resource districts are incapable of effective resource management may be exaggerated. This paper describes a comprehensive groundwater control program established by Nebraska's Upper Republican Natural Resource District (URNRD). An analysis of the rule-making behavior of this district identifies a variety of factors which facilitated self-regulation.
Time-varying reaction of US meat demand to animal disease outbreaks
Wang, Yangchuan; Massa, Olga Isengildina; Stewart, Shamar L. (Wiley, 2024-09-01)
This study examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (HPAI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broiler meat in the United States from 1997 to 2022. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from the Rotterdam model extended to include animal disease outbreaks, we found that the BSE outbreaks significantly reduced beef consumption. These reactions were indeed time-varying, ranging from 1.312% in 2003 to 1.212% in 2005. HPAI outbreaks had a delayed reaction, with a rebound in broiler meat consumption in the quarter following the start of the outbreak. In general, the magnitude of these reactions was proportional to the severity of an outbreak.
Long-term effects of cover crops and no-tillage on soil health in the Virginia Coastal Plain
Haymaker, Joseph; Stewart, Ryan D.; Wolters, Bethany; Stephenson, Stephen Kurt; Balkcom, Kipling; Reiter, Mark S. (Elsevier, 2025-10-03)
After centuries of conventional tillage practices, sandy loam Coastal Plain soils have been heavily degraded, resulting in severely depleted soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. This study examined impacts on soil health when transitioning from intensive tillage in vegetable production to no-till (NT) corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) production with cover crops (CC). A long-term cropping system experiment, established in 2014, assessed twelve different crop rotations, including a conventionally tilled (CT) fallow control and various CC treatments, ranging from monocultures to a perennial mixture with corn planted every third year. After nine years, CC treatments increased near-surface SOC concentrations (8.4–10.5 g kg⁻¹at 0–5 cm) and SOC stocks (4.6–7.3 Mg ha⁻¹) compared to fallow controls (6.4–6.9 g kg⁻¹; 4.6–5.2 Mg ha⁻¹). Soil organic carbon gains were most pronounced in the surface 5 cm and had a positive relationship with cumulative C inputs (R²= 0.38). Cover crops reduced bulk density by up to 11 %, and SOC stocks were still significantly greater than fallow treatments as SOC concentration gains offset the lower bulk density. Treatments with hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth L.) or legume-dominant CC mixes lowered soil pH compared to fallow or grass-based CC treatments, potentially increasing the need for lime applications. Adoption of NT alone, without CCs, did not deliver similar soil health benefits. These results highlight the importance of integrating CCs into crop rotations to enhance SOC and improve soil physical properties in degraded Coastal Plain soils.
Attracting and securing budgets for agricultural and applied economics departments
Holt, Matthew T.; Homans, Frances R.; Lusk, Jayson; Nayga Jr, Rodolfo M. (Wiley, 2024-09-01)
The aim of this paper is to discuss the challenges in attracting and securing adequate budgets for departments of agricultural and applied economics, while recognizing that the institutional and political contexts matter. Agricultural and applied economics departments that operate with an entrepreneurial mindset, that maintain and grow their student numbers, and that have a vibrant demand for their extension and research activities will thrive. The good news is we often have considerable control over the factors that contribute to our longer-term success.
Rain check: how data details influence payout determinations in a U.S. rainfall index insurance program
Benami, Elinor; Ramanujan, Ramaraja; Cecil, Michael J. (Cambridge University Press, 2025-09-04)
An increasing number of disaster relief programs rely on weather data to trigger automated payouts. However, several factors can meaningfully affect payouts, including the choice of data set, its spatial resolution, and the historical reference period used to determine abnormal conditions to be indemnified. We investigate these issues for a subsidized rainfall-based insurance program in the U.S. using data averaged over 0.25° × 0.25° grids to trigger payouts. We simulate the program using 5x finer spatial resolution precipitation estimates and evaluate differences in payouts from the current design. Our analysis across the highest enrolling state (Texas) from 2012 to 2023 reveals that payout determinations would differ in 13% of cases, with payout amounts ranging from 46 to 83% of those calculated using the original data. This potentially reduces payouts by tens of millions annually, assuming unchanged premiums. We then discuss likely factors contributing to payout differences, including intra-grid variation, reference periods used, and varying precipitation distributions. Finally, to address basis risk concerns, we propose ways to use these results to identify where mismatches may lurk, in turn informing strategic sampling campaigns or alternative designs that could enhance the value of insurance and protect producers from downside risks of poor weather conditions.
The effects of drought and other rainfall shocks on the body mass index and height of under-five children in Senegal
Regmi, Manoranjan; Kostandini, Genti (2025-10-24)
Background: This study examines the effects of drought and other rainfall shocks on body mass index and height-for-age-Z-score of the children aged 0–59 months in 2016 in Senegal. Methods: This relationship is investigated using the 2016 Senegal Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the climate covariates data for each DHS cluster using a multivariate regression approach. Results: The findings reveal that drought and negative rainfall shock have a statistically significant and robust impact on a child’s body mass index. Furthermore, total rainfall deviation seems to have a negative effect on the height-for-age. The effects of the drought on the poorest households seem to be of considerable magnitude; however, the richest households do not seem to get affected. Finally, these shocks seem to be different for male and female children, which imply the prevalence of gender-based discrimination in allocating resources within households. Conclusions: We find that broad categorization of the effects of drought and other rainfall shocks ignores heterogeneity and coping strategies across children and households. Our results find different positive and negative impacts on health measures. On the policy front, improving access to credit, effective targeting of the nutritional intervention, income diversification, and programs that promote capacity building and support non-weather-related economic activities through increased access to credit and improved infrastructure could be emphasized.
Geostrategic dimensions of recent food policy decisions
Wieck, Christine; Rudloff, Bettina; Mensah, Kristina; Kareem, Olayinka; Montesclaros, Jose Ma Luis; Orden, David R.; Sondergaard, Niels; Yu, Wusheng (Wiley, 2024-12-01)
This article analyzes the geostrategic dimensions in food policy responses to two recent global shocks: the Corona-SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the Russian war against Ukraine. The analysis adds to the general assessments of economic security by providing a case study of food policy and food security as an element of economic security. Strong national path dependent trajectories in food policies can be observed. However, geostrategic dimensions related to interstate interaction and political considerations in policymaking that go beyond food security are also observed.

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