VTechWorks Repository :: Browsing by Author "Bahel, Eric A."

Browsing by Author "Bahel, Eric A."

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The Behavioral and Neural Bases of Social Economic Decision-Making
Li, Zhuncheng (Virginia Tech, 2019-04-22)
Social economic decision-making considers the well-being and emotions of others. Unlike traditional economics which routinely assumes that individuals care only about their own outcomes, behavioral economics and neuroeconomics offer research strategies which help us explore our social motivations. This dissertation consists of three essays studying the underlying behavioral and neural mechanisms of individuals' social economic decision-making. The analyses focus on investigating experimentally how humans make decisions in three distinct social economic environments. Chapter 2 examines how individuals react to hold-up when explicit promises are available. Hold-up happens when two parties can form an incomplete contract to cooperate, but the agreement may fall apart due to concerns about the other party gaining bargaining power. We propose that a belief-dependent frustration anger model can explain behavior about investment, cooperation, and costly punishment in a hold-up environment. We show experimentally that communication improves cooperation and increases efficiency. Promises lead to cooperation, and broken promises lead to costly punishment. Chapter 3 explores threats' deterrence effect and credibility in an ultimatum bargaining environment where two parties can both benefit over trade but have a conflict of interests. We show that a belief-dependent frustration anger model captures the relationship among messages, beliefs, and behavior. Our design permits the observation of communicated threats, credibility, and deterrence. As we hypothesize, messages convey intention to punish the opponents (threats) changes players' expectations, that first movers are largely deterred by the threats and second movers' threats are credible. Threats lead to deterrence and greater propensity for costly punishment. Chapter 4 investigates the neural basis of individuals' charity donation behavior in a modified dictator game. The right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) has been associated with social decision-making, but the exact neural mechanism of charitable giving remains unknown. In our experiment, participants allocate money between themselves and a charity in a graphical revealed preference task, that measures both parameterized other-regarding preferences and economic rationality (Monotonicity, WARP, and GARP). We find evidence for a causal role of the rTPJ in determining fairness preferences and economic rationality.
Empirical Analyses of a Spatial Model of Voter Preferences
Matje, Thorsten (Virginia Tech, 2016-12-06)
To properly analyze the advantages and disadvantages of voting rules, and how well the outcomes that they yield reflect voters' preferences, one needs very large data sets, since paradoxes that occur very rarely may have large impacts. Since such amounts of election data are currently unavailable, it is important to be able to use random procedures to generate data that have the same statistical characteristics as real election data. It is the purpose of this work to identify a statistical characterization of voting data, to empower researchers to use random procedures to generate data that is statistically indistinguishable from real voting data.
Essays in Decision Theory
Gu, Yuan (Virginia Tech, 2023-06-12)
This dissertation studies decision theories for both individual and interactive choice problems. This thesis proposes three non-standard models that modify assumptions and settings of standard models. Chapter 1 provides an overview of this dissertation. In the second chapter I present a model of decision-making under uncertainty in which an agent is constrained in her cognitive ability to consider complex acts. The complexity of an act is identified by the corresponding partition of state space. The agent ranks acts according to the expected utility net of complexity cost. I introduce a new axiom called Aversion to Complexity, that depicts an agent's aversion to complex acts. This axiom, together with other modified classical expected utility axioms characterizes a Complexity Aversion Representation. In addition, I present applications to competitive markets with uncertainty and optimal contract design. The third Chapter discusses how a complexity averse agent measures the complexity cost of an act after she receives new information. I propose an updating rule for the complexity cost function called Minimal Complexity Updating. The idea is that if the agent is told that the true state must belong to a particular event, she needs not consider the complexity of an act outside of this event. The main result characterizes axiomatically the Minimal Complexity Aversion Representation. Lastly, I apply the idea of Minimal Complexity Updating to the theory of rational inattention. The last chapter deals with a variant model of fictitious play, in which each player has a perturbation term that measures to what extent his rival will stick to the rules of traditional fictitious play. I find that the empirical distribution can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium if the perturbation term is bounded. Furthermore, I introduce an updating rule for the perturbation term. I prove that if the perturbation term is updated in accordance with this rule, then play can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium.
Essays in Economic Theory
Liu, Yaojun (Virginia Tech, 2022-05-18)
In this study, I introduce the alternative-dependent focal Luce model (ADFLM), a random choice model generalizing the well-known Luce model (1959). In the ADFLM, focal alternatives are chosen more frequently relative to their utilities. I identify utilities, focal sets, and the magnitude of focal biases from choice data. Additionally, I axiomatically characterize the ADFLM by weakening the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) axiom. This model can explain the well-known behavioral phenomena, the attraction and compromise effects. Furthermore, I also study the seller's profit maximization problem in the ADFLM. I also study an asymmetric dynamic patent race with a deadline under complete information. In my model, two firms decide whether to invest in RandD. The patent arrives randomly according to a Poisson process, and the large firm has a higher hazard rate than the small firm. I find the unique sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium strategy for this game. At the equilibrium, the large firm will stay longer in the race, while the small firm will quit earlier. The large firm's optimal stopping time is not affected by the competition, while the small firm's stopping time is reduced. Additionally, I find that companies will remain longer in the race if the investigation cost is lower, the winning premium is higher, the deadline is extended further, and the hazard rate is more prominent. Moreover, the market becomes more efficient with the competition since the patent is easier to realize.
Essays in Game Theory and Forest Economics
Wang, Haoyu (Virginia Tech, 2022-08-18)
This dissertation consists of three essays in theoretical and applied microeconomics: the first essay is in cooperative game theory, and the second and third essays relate to forest economics. The first chapter studies a class of cooperative games dubbed ``r-essential games''. Cooperative game theory has proposed different notions of powerful players. For example, big-boss games (Muto et al., 1988) and clan games (Potters et al., 1989) are particular cases of veto games (Bahel, 2016). The first chapter extends these veto games by assuming that there is a given subset of powerful (or essential) players, but only a few (as opposed to all) essential players are required for a coalition to have a positive value. The resulting games, which are called r-essential games, encompass convex games (Shapley, 1971) and veto games. We show that r-essential games have a nonempty core. We give a recursive description of the core. Moreover, it is shown that the core and the bargaining set are equivalent for every r-essential game. An application to networks is provided. The second chapter employs a two-principal, one-agent model to estimate the social cost of fiscal federalism in China's northeast native forests. China's key forested region is located in the northeast and consists of state forest enterprises which manage forest harvesting and reforestation. Deforestation is a major problem there and has resulted in several central government reforms. We develop a framework for assessing the social cost of state forest enterprise deforestation. We first develop a two-principal, one-agent model that fits the federalistic organization of state forests, in that state forest managers make (potentially hidden) decisions under influence of provincial and central government policies. This model is used to quantify the social cost of these hidden actions. We then use panel data from a survey conducted by Peking University to compute social welfare losses and to formally identify the main factors in these costs. A sensitivity analysis shows that, interestingly, command and control through lower harvesting limits and a more accurate monitoring system are more important to lowering social welfare losses than conventional incentives targeting the wages of forest managers. Through regression analysis we also find that the more remote areas with a higher percentage of mature natural forests are the ones that will always have the highest social welfare losses. The third chapter studies the problem of choosing a rotation under uncertain future ecosystem values and timber prices. This problem is nearly as old as the field of forest economics itself. A forest owner faces various uncertainties caused by climate change and market shocks, due to its long-term nature of production and the joint production of interrelated timber and amenity (non-harvesting) benefit streams. The vast literature in stochastic rotation problems simply assumes a known probability distribution for whatever parameter is uncertain, but this type of assumption may lead to misspecification of a rotation decision model if a forest owner has no such information. We study a more relevant question of how to choose rotation ages when there is pure (or Knightian) uncertainty, in that the forest owner does not know distributional features of parameters and further can be averse to this type of information deficit. This chapter is the first to investigate pure uncertainty in amenity benefit streams and is also the first to analytically solve a stochastic rotation problem under pure uncertainty in either amenity streams or market prices. We use robust methods developed in macroeconomics that are particularly suited to forest capital investment problem, but with important differences owing to the nature of forest goods production. The results show that newer models suggesting rotation ages could be longer under volatile parameter distributions do not hold generally when pure uncertainty and forest owner uncertainty aversion is considered. Rather, the earlier literature showing faster or greater harvesting with increases in risk under risk neutrality may actually be a more general result than current literature supposes. In particular, we find that a landowner tends to harvest more when his degree of uncertainty aversion is higher and the model is misspecified by assumption, or when the volatility of an uncertain process is higher. These situations tend to magnify model misspecification costs, especially because the forest manager always assumes the worst case will happen when there is uncertainty. This implies the decision maker is pessimistic in the sense that he or she is always trying to maximize the utility under the worst possible state of nature (the lowest amenity benefit or the lowest timber price). Whether landowners are in fact uncertainty averse and assume the worst case in their decisions remains to be empirically investigated, but our work suggests it is an important question that must be answered.
Essays on Applied Game Theory and Public Economics
Yang, Tsung-Han (Virginia Tech, 2018-05-01)
The first chapter presents a theoretical model of electoral competition where two parties can increase campaign contributions by choosing policies benefiting a significant interest group. However, such decision will shrink their hardcore vote base where voters are well informed about the policy. The parties can then allocate the funds between campaigning and personal wealth. Different from the core voters, independent voters can be attracted by advertisements funded by campaign spending. Using a multi-stage extensive form game, I investigate how electoral competition interacts with diversions and policy distortions. My result shows that a higher level of electoral competition helps mitigate policy distortions but prompts the parties to divert more funds. Perfectly informed signal senders need to communicate their true type (productivity or ability) which is often private information to potential receivers. While tests are commonly used as measures of applicants' productivity, the accuracy of them has been questioned. Beginning with the framework of a two-type labor market signaling game, the second chapter investigates how tests of limited reliability affect the nature of equilibria in signaling games with asymmetric information. Our results show that, if a test is inaccurate and costly, only pooling PBE exists given certain conditions. Different forms of test inaccuracy may allow a separating PBE to exist. We also study the case of three types and find different PBEs. The central issue of siting noxious facilities is that the host community absorbs potential costs, while all others can share the benefits without paying as much. The third chapter presents a modified Clarke mechanism to facilitate the siting decision, taking into account all residents' strategies. Suppose that the social planner is able to reasonably estimate the possible costs, depending on the host location, to each resident created by the facility. Our proposed Clarke mechanism is characterized by strategy-proofness and yields an efficient siting outcome. The issue of budget imbalance is mitigated when the compensation scheme is fully funded with the tax revenue based on the benefits. We then use a simple example to show that a weighted version of the Clarke mechanism may yield a different outcome.
Essays on DSGE Models and Bayesian Estimation
Kim, Jae-yoon (Virginia Tech, 2018-06-11)
This thesis explores the theory and practice of sovereignty. I begin with a conceptual analysis of sovereignty, examining its theological roots in contrast with its later influence in contestations over political authority. Theological debates surrounding God’s sovereignty dealt not with the question of legitimacy, which would become important for political sovereignty, but instead with the limits of his ability. Read as an ontological capacity, sovereignty is coterminous with an existent’s activity in the world. As lived, this capacity is regularly limited by the ways in which space is produced via its representations, its symbols, and its practices. All collective appropriations of space have a nomos that characterizes their practice. Foucault’s account of “biopolitics” provides an account of how contemporary materiality is distributed, an account that can be supplemented by sociological typologies of how city space is typically produced. The collective biopolitical distribution of space expands the range of practices that representationally legibilize activity in the world, thereby expanding the conceptual limits of existents and what it means for them to act up to the borders of their capacity, i.e., to practice sovereignty. The desire for total authorial capacity expresses itself in relations of domination and subordination that never erase the fundamental precarity of subjects, even as these expressions seek to disguise it. I conclude with a close reading of narratives recounting the lives of residents in Chicago’s Englewood, reading their activity as practices of sovereignty which manifest variously as they master and produce space.
Essays on Economic Decision Making
Lee, Dongwoo (Virginia Tech, 2019-05-17)
This dissertation focuses on exploring individual and strategic decision problems in Economics. I take a different approach in each chapter to capture various aspects of decision problems. An overview of this dissertation is provided in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 studies an individual's decision making in extensive-form games under ambiguity when the individual is ambiguous about an opponent's moves. In this chapter, a player follows Choquet Expected Utility preferences, since the standard Expected Utility cannot explain the situations of ambiguity. I raise the issue that dynamically inconsistent decision making can be derived in extensive-form games with ambiguity. To cope with this issue, this chapter provides sufficient conditions to recover dynamic consistency. Chapter 3 analyzes the strategic decision making in signaling games when a player makes an inference about hidden information from the behavioral hypothesis. The Hypothesis Testing Equilibrium (HTE) is proposed to provide an explanation for posterior beliefs from the player. The notion of HTE admits belief updates for all events including zero-probability events. In addition, this chapter introduces well-motivated modifications of HTE. Finally, Chapter 4 examines a boundedly rational individual who considers selective attributes when making a decision. It is assumed that the individual focuses on a subset of attributes that stand out from a choice set. The selective attributes model can accommodate violations of choice axioms of Independence from Irrelevant Alternative (IIA) and Regularity.
Essays on Financial Economics
Chi, Mengyang (Virginia Tech, 2021-04-14)
This dissertation consists of three papers. In the first paper, I study firms' capital raising decisions in a two-stage signaling game. In the model, firms can issue debt or equity to finance sequentially arriving investment projects. Management is assumed to have an initial information advantage over investors. However, when a firm's decision in the first stage can change investors' beliefs and, consequently, impact the security issuance in the second stage, its optimal choice differs significantly from the strict debt-equity preference in a comparable one-stage model. In equilibrium, a dynamic pecking order arises, suggesting that the information friction can solely explain various aspects of observed corporate financing behavior. The second paper is coauthored with Hans Haller. In this paper, we model how different wealth constraints among investors affect an entrepreneur's way of raising capital, his share of project NPV, and his ownership of the new firm. Combining cooperative and noncooperative approaches, we develop and analyze a bargaining framework and demonstrate cases in which a fair division cannot be achieved when sharing of cost and sharing of return are jointly considered. Our results cover conditions on how the entrepreneur can strategically achieve larger net wealth accumulation, and when he can obtain control of the firm. We further discuss the entrepreneur's preferences on the firm's ownership dispersion level under public financing. The third paper argues that although innovation is costlier than imitation, the incumbent firm is endowed with an advantage of enhancing its product ahead of potential competitors. In a model that connects consumers' utility with firms' production, I show that the incumbent's product enhancement decision can foster the creation of a better product, improve consumers' utility, and deter entrance from competitors. The pace of creative activities is determined by the incumbent's potential of improving its product quality and the nature of product differentiation in the industry. Thus, creative destruction may not manifest itself as new firms replacing the incumbent, but as the incumbent constantly renovating its product.
Essays on Network formation games
Kim, Sunjin (Virginia Tech, 2021-08-06)
This dissertation focuses on studying various network formation games in Economics. We explore a different model in each chapter to capture various aspects of networks. Chapter 1provides an overview of this dissertation. Chapter 2 studies the possible Nash equilibrium configurations in a model of signed network formation as proposed by Hiller (2017). We specify the Nash equilibria in the case of heterogeneous agents. We find 3 possible Nash equilibrium configurations: Utopia network, positive assortative matching, and disassortative matching. We derive the specific conditions under which they arise in a Nash equilibrium. In Chapter 3, we study a generalized model of signed network formation game where the players can choose not only positive and negative links but also neutral links. We check whether the results of the signed network formation model in the literature still hold in our generalized framework using the notion of pairwise Nash equilibrium. Chapter 4 studies inequality in a weighted network formation model using the notion of Nash equilibrium. As a factor of inequality, there are two types of players: Rich players and poor players. We show that both rich and poor players designate other rich players as their best friends. As a result, We present that nested split graphs are drawn from survey data because researchers tend to ask respondents to list only a few friends.
Essays on Pricing and Promotional Strategies
Chung, Hoe Sang (Virginia Tech, 2013-09-03)
This dissertation contains three essays on theoretical analysis of pricing and promotional strategies. Chapter 1 serves as a brief introduction that provides a motivation and an overview of the topics covered in the subsequent chapters. In Chapter 2, we study optimal couponing strategies in a differentiated duopoly with repeat purchase. Both firms can distribute defensive coupons alone, defensive and offensive coupons together, or mass media coupons. They can also determine how many coupons to offer. Allowing consumers to change their tastes for the firms' products over time, we find that the optimal couponing strategy for the firms is to only distribute coupons to all of the customers who buy from them. The effects of intertemporally constant preferences and consumer myopia on the profitability of the optimal couponing are investigated as well. Chapter 3 examines the profitability of behavior-based price discrimination (BBPD) by duopolists producing horizontally differentiated experience goods. We consider a three-stage game in which the firms first make price discrimination decisions followed by two-stage pricing decisions. The main findings are: (i) there are two subgame perfect Nash equilibria where both firms do not collect information about consumers' purchase histories so that neither firm price discriminates and where both firms collect consumer information to practice BBPD; and (ii) BBPD is more profitable than uniform pricing if sufficiently many consumers have a poor experience with the firms' products. The asymmetric case where one firm produces experience goods and the other search goods is also investigated. Chapter 4 provides a possible explanation of the fact that one ticket price is charged for all movies (regardless of their quality) in the motion-picture industry. Considering a model a la Hotelling in which moviegoers form their beliefs about movie quality through pricing schemes to which an exhibitor commits, we characterize the conditions under which committing to uniform pricing is more profitable than committing to variable pricing. The welfare consequences of a uniform pricing commitment and some extensions of the model are discussed as well.
Essays on signaling games under ambiguity
Lee, Min Suk (Virginia Tech, 2015-06-17)
This dissertation studies two-person signaling games where the players are assumed to be Choquet expected utility maximizers a la Schmeidler (1989). The sender sends an ambiguous message to the receiver who updates his non-additive belief according to a f-Bayesian updating rule of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1993). When the types are unambiguous in the sense of Nehring (1999), the receiver's conditional preferences after updating on an ambiguous message are always of the subjective expected utility form. This property may serious limit the descriptive power of solution concepts under non-additive beliefs, and it is scrutinized with two extreme f-Bayesian updating rules, the Dempster-Shafer and the Bayes' rule. In chapter 3, the Dempster-Shafer equilibrium proposed by Eichberger and Kelsey (2004) is reappraised. Under the assumption of unambiguous types, it is shown that the Dempster-Shafer equilibrium may give rise to a separating behavior that is never supported by perfect Bayesian equilibrium. However, it does not support any additional pooling equilibrium outcome. Since the Dempster-Shafer equilibrium may support implausible behaviors as exemplified in Ryan (2002), a refinement based on coherent beliefs is suggested. In chapter 4, a variant of perfect Bayesian equilibrium, the quasi perfect Bayesian equilibrium, is proposed, and its descriptive power is investigated. It is shown that the quasi perfect Bayesian equilibrium does not support any additional separating behavior compared to perfect Bayesian equilibrium. It may support additional pooling behavior only if the receiver perceives a correlation between the types and messages.
Generalized Principal Component Analysis
Solat, Karo (Virginia Tech, 2018-06-05)
The primary objective of this dissertation is to extend the classical Principal Components Analysis (PCA), aiming to reduce the dimensionality of a large number of Normal interrelated variables, in two directions. The first is to go beyond the static (contemporaneous or synchronous) covariance matrix among these interrelated variables to include certain forms of temporal (over time) dependence. The second direction takes the form of extending the PCA model beyond the Normal multivariate distribution to the Elliptically Symmetric family of distributions, which includes the Normal, the Student's t, the Laplace and the Pearson type II distributions as special cases. The result of these extensions is called the Generalized principal component analysis (GPCA). The GPCA is illustrated using both Monte Carlo simulations as well as an empirical study, in an attempt to demonstrate the enhanced reliability of these more general factor models in the context of out-of-sample forecasting. The empirical study examines the predictive capacity of the GPCA method in the context of Exchange Rate Forecasting, showing how the GPCA method dominates forecasts based on existing standard methods, including the random walk models, with or without including macroeconomic fundamentals.
Role of Social Preferences and Coalitions in a Public Goods Game
Upadhyay, Sakshi (Virginia Tech, 2021-08-11)
The boon of public goods to a society is its inclusive nature where no individual can be restricted from enjoying its fruits. However, this very feature generates proclivity among individuals in the society to escape paying their share towards creation of the public good, which is known as free-riding. Interestingly, contribution levels in reality surpass predictions suggested by theoretical findings. To understand and assuage the free-riding problem, we study a public good game where individuals in a society form small groups or coalitions to carry out collective decisions about contribution levels. Such cooperative action is further augmented when we account for social and other-regarding preferences in individuals, which make them care about well-being of others. While social preferences are well documented in other economic environments, their effect on the formation, likelihood and size of coalitions to provide public goods is not well understood. This dissertation uses both theoretical and experimental methods to incorporate social preferences into the study of coalition formation and how such coalitions affect the provision of the public good. In any public good provision problem, marginal per capita return (MPCR) is an important determinant. For every dollar a person spends on privately providing the public good, the MPCR measures how much the individual gets back. Conventional theory suggests an inverse relationship between coalition size and MPCR, which stands contrary to recent experimental evidences. My dissertation uses heterogenous social preferences to arrive at sufficient conditions which establishes a positive relationship between coalition size and MPCR. Chapter 2 theoretically investigates the conditions required to achieve a positive relationship between coalition size and MPCR when an individual's social preference is private information. The model is a two-stage public good game, where in the first stage individuals decide whether or not to join the coalition and then in the next stage, the coalition votes to contribute to public good. The results suggest that individuals with pro social preferences are more likely to join the coalition and upon joining always contribute to the public good. Higher MPCR further increase an individual's likelihood to join coalition and contribute to public good. The results hold true under different model specifications as well. Chapter 3 test the theoretical predictions of Chapter 2 by using an experiment. In the experiment, subject's payoff is determined by exogenously inducing social preferences into an individual's payoff function. The experiment validates the predictions of theoretical model and we find that individuals who have lower weight on their own payoff are likely to join the coalition and also vote to contribute to public good. Higher return from public good also results in larger coalition size and increases the likelihood to contribute to public good. Chapter 4 also tests the theoretical prediction, however, here the preferences are estimated by using an incentivized task based on how much money they are willing to give to someone else. The outcomes from the incentivized task suggest that individuals who give more money to others are more likely to join the coalition and also contribute to public good. High MPCR ensures larger coalition size and more individuals contributing to public good. We also find that coalition size have a positive impact on individual's decision to join the coalition and contribute.
Strategic Resource Dependence and Adoption of a Substitute under Learning-by-Doing
Bahel, Eric A.; Chakravorty, Ujjayant (Virginia Tech, 2013-06-28)
There is ample evidence that the production of alternative sources of energy is subject to learning-by-doing. The present paper examines the implications of learning-by-doing in the bilateral resource monopoly studied by Gerlagh and Liski (2011). We derive the socially optimal use of both oil and the substitute, as well as the Markov-perfect equilibrium. Our results are qualitatively different from those of Gerlagh and Liski. We show that it may be socially efficient to discard part of the cheap oil stock. Interestingly, we find that, in the Markov-perfect equilibrium, the buyer curbs his consumption to conserve the oil stock owned by the seller.
Strategyproof Choice of Acts: Beyond Dictatorship
Bahel, Eric A.; Sprumont, Yves (Virginia Tech, 2017-05-20)
We model uncertain social prospects as acts mapping states of nature to (public) outcomes. A social choice function (or SCF) assigns an act to every profile of subjective expected utility preferences over acts. A SCF is strategyproof if no agent ever has an incentive to misrepresent her beliefs about the states of nature or her valuation of the outcomes; it is ex-post efficient if the act selected at any given preference profile picks a Pareto-efficient outcome in every state of nature. We offer a complete characterization of all strategyproof and ex-post efficient SCFs. The chosen act must pick the most preferred outcome of some (possibly different) agent in every state of nature. The set of states in which an agent's top outcome is selected may vary with the reported belief profile; it is the union of all the states assigned to her by a collection of constant, bilaterally dictatorial, or bilaterally consensual assignment rules.
Three Empirical Analyses of Voting
Song, Chang Geun (Virginia Tech, 2022-06-17)
To evaluate voting rules, it would be good to know what universe election outcomes are drawn from. Election theorists have postulated that elections might be drawn from various stochastic preference models, including the IC and IAC conditions, but these models induce empirically contradicted predictions. We use two distinct data sets, FairVote and German Politbarometer survey. Based on the data information, we suggest approaches that differ from those probabilistic models to better approximate the actual data in Chapter 3 and 4. Chapter 5 applies the spatial model for four-candidate in a three-dimensional setting. We also offer a significant gap between the actual and simulated data under the IAC conditions by comparing their statistical characteristics.
Three Essays in Applied Time Series Econometrics
Rakshit, Atanu (Virginia Tech, 2013-08-08)
This dissertation is comprised of four chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to
Economic application of time series analysis and discusses the topics covered in each of the following chapters along with some main results therein.
    In Chapter 2, I construct a measure of information asymmetry in the financial markets in U.S., by estimating an index of agency cost pertaining to U.S. manufacturing firms. The cyclical behavior of the unobservable agency cost is derived by a novel application of the Kalman filter within a Bayesian framework, using firm level data from 1984-2006. The preliminary results provide support to the financial accelerator mechanism in the business cycle literature.
    In Chapter 3, I show that people\'s expectation of uncertainty in financial markets is a significant factor impacting short-term real exchange rate movements. Specifically, a sudden increase in expectation of stock market volatility in a low interest rate country tends to appreciate their currencies against high interest rate currencies. I construct a measure of conditional expected uncertainty from volatility of returns of the dominant portfolio (indices) of 7 industrialized countries. I identify uncertainty shocks and its impact on dollar real exchange rate, and explain my results in the context of currency carry trade.
    Chapter 4 of my dissertation documents the presence of significant non-linearity in the deficit-interest rate relationship in the U.S. economy. Using an asymptotic threshold test as per Hansen (2000), I find strong evidence for threshold effects in the impact of expected deficit on future long-term interest rates. I find that a percentage point increase in expected deficit in a regime where the expected deficit/GDP ratio is above 1.8 percent (the estimated threshold value) increases future nominal long term interest rates by 29-30 basis point, and a "news shock" to expectation of future deficit increases future real long term interest rates by 12-18 basis points. When expected deficit/GDP ratio is below 1.8 percent, an increase in expected deficit has no impact on future long-term interest rates.
Three Essays on Dynamic Contests
Cai, Yichuan (Virginia Tech, 2022-06-23)
This dissertation consists of three essays studying the theory of dynamic contest. This analysis mainly focuses on how the outcome and the optimal design in a dynamic contest varies on contest technology, heterogeneous players, contest architecture, and bias instruments. The first chapter outlines the dissertation by briefly discussing the motivations, methods, and main findings in the following chapters. Chapter 2 considers a situation in which two groups compete in a series of battles with complete information. Each group has multiple heterogeneous players. The group who first wins a predetermined number of battles wins a prize which is a public good for the winning group. A discriminatory state-dependent contest success function will be employed in each battle. We found that in the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (equilibria), the lower valuation players can only exert effort in earlier battles, while the higher valuation players may exert effort throughout the entire series of battles. The typical discouragement effect in a multi-battle contest is mitigated when players compete as a group. We also provide two types of optimal contest designs that can fully resolve the free-rider problem in group contests. Chapter 3 investigates optimal contest design with multiple heterogeneous players. We allow the contest designer to have one or multiple/mixed objectives, which includes the following parts: the total effort; the winner's effort; the maximal effort; and the winning probability of the strongest player. We provide a one-size-fits-all contest design that is optimal given any objective function. In the optimal contest, the designer will have one of the weaker players exhaust the strongest in the contest with infinite battles. We obtain the required conditions on different contest frameworks (e.g., all-pay auctions and lottery contests) and bias instruments (e.g., head starts and multiplicative bias). This means the contest designer has multiple alternatives to design the optimal contest. The last chapter investigates a situation where two players compete in a series of sequential battles to win a prize. A player can obtain certain points by winning a single battle, and the available points may vary across the battles. The player who first obtains predetermined points wins the prize. We fully characterize the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium by describing the indifference continuation value interval. We found that when two players are symmetric, they only compete in the separating battle. In the general case, we found that winning a battle may not create any momentum when the weight of the battle is small. A small enough adjustment of a battle's weight will not change both players' incentive to win the battle. Increasing (or decreasing) a battle's weight weakly increases (or weakly decreases) both players' incentive to win.
Three Essays on Dynamic Games with Incomplete Information and Strategic Complementarities
Yi, Ming (Virginia Tech, 2014-05-07)
This dissertation consists of three essays that adopt both theoretical and empirical methods of analysis to study certain economies in which the incomplete information and the strategic complementarities between players are important. Chapter 1 explains the topics discussed in the subsequent chapters and gives a brief survey on the literature. In Chapter 2, I revise a traditional global game model by dividing the continuum of players into a group of speculators and a group of stakeholders. It is found that the uniqueness property remains in the new game. Then I extend the static game to a two-stage game and investigate the efficacies of certain label changing mechanisms proposed by the authority to stabilize the regime in the dynamic context. It is shown that a label changing mechanism allowing for downward social mobility may not work, whereas a label changing mechanism allowing for upward social mobility generally makes the regime more stable. In Chapter 3, I add a speculator and an authority to a bank-run model to investigate how the speculator endangers a business or an economy, and what the authority can do about it. In particular, I show that the speculator can increase the financial system's vulnerability by serving as a coordinating device for the investors and thus triggering the crisis. It is further shown that deterring the speculator may not undo the speculator's impact because of multiplicity problem; rewarding holding investors is useless; and eliminating the preemption motives among investors works given enough effort. A discussion of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the IMF's role in it is also included. Chapter 4 develops a repeated beauty-contest game to investigate the effect of previous winners' actions on the spread of subsequent players' actions. I first characterize the unique equilibrium of the game. Then I focus on the equilibrium dynamics of several variances depicting different forms of action variability. It is found that whether or not a specific variance diminishes over time depends on the relative precision of public and private signals. To illustrate the theoretical results, I conduct an empirical study on the Miss Korea contest. It is found that the contestants' faces have been converging to the ``true beauty'' overall, but diverging from each other over the last 20 years. Chapter 5 concludes.

Browsing by Author "Bahel, Eric A."

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