Browsing by Author "Chen, Chi-Chung"

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  • The economic consequences of ENSO events for agriculture
    Adams, Richard M.; Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Weiher, Rodney F. (Luhe, Germany: Inter-Research, 1999)
    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to be a significant cause of year to year climate variation, which greatly impacts agricultural productivity. The unusually strong El Niño event in 1997-98 and the strong La Niña event that followed in 1998-99 both led to economic consequences for US agriculture. This paper applies a stochastic economic model to estimate the extent of economic damage, deriving predicted losses to be $1.5 to $1.7 billion for El Niño and $2.2 to $6.5 billion for La Niña.
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    Economic implications of potential ENSO frequency and strength shifts
    Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce A.; Adams, Richard M. (1999)
    Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann et al.(1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the $3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.