Browsing by Author "Dyke, P."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Agricultural climate change impact: General concerns and findings from Mali, Kenya, Uganda, and Senegal
    Butt, T.; Angerer, Jay; Dyke, P.; Kim, M.; Kaitho, R.; Stuth, Jerry (2004)
    This paper discusses concerns about the impact of climate change on agriculture. Methods for assessing the impacts of climate change and the results from impact assessments in Mali, Kenya, Uganda, and Senegal are presented.
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    Economic and environmental impact of improved sorghum and millet technology in Mali
    Eddleman, B.; Kergna, A.; Vitale, J.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Chen, Chi Chung; Dyke, P. (2001)
    To provide improved methods to assess the impact of introduction and use of technology, a suite of integrated interactive models was created for use in developing countries. The Agricultural Sector Model (ASM) was used to estimate the economic consequences of adopting a new sorghum production system derived from joint U.S. and Malian research under the INTSORMIL CRSP and ICRISAT. It assumed an adoption rate of between 20 and 30% among regions of Mali. Demand is based on estimates of population growth in the year 2015 (World Food Summit target date) for the various regions of Mali. The annual total national welfare associated with adoption of the technology was estimated to be FCFA 635 billion per year in the year 2015. The EPIC model was run with 20-year simulations. The model predicts a reduction in erosion using the new production system ranging 1-3% in the Segou region; 30-43% in Kayes. The reduction is attributed to faster development of canopy cover exhibited with the new system. This is due both to the improved germplasm and the increased use of fertilizer. These results suggest the economic benefits of the new production package are accompanied by positive environmental consequences through reduction in soil erosion.
  • The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali
    Butt, T.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Angerer, Jay; Dyke, P.; Stuth, Jerry (Dordrecht-Holland ; Boston: Reidel Publishing Company, 2003)
    This study uses climate change projections from two global circulation models to address the impact of climate change on Mali's agriculture sector and the consequences for the sector economy and food security. The authors focus on crops, forage, and livestock as indicators of climate change effects. The analysis projected a change in national crop yields between a 17% decrease and a 6% increase, a 5 to 36% decrease in forage yields, and a 14 to 16% decrease in livestock weights. These changes correspond to economic losses of $70 to $142 million, which are primarily absorbed by the consumers; the percentage of the population at risk for hunger is projected to increase to 64 to 72%, which is a potentially doubling the current estimate of 34%. The authors suggest that developing heat resistant cultivars, using improved cultivars already developed, adapting cropping patterns to climate changes, and expanding cropland can prevent these dramatic consequences of climate change and lower the percentage facing a hunger risk to as low as 28%.