Browsing by Author "Shively, Gerald E."

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  • Activity choice, labor allocation, and forest use in Malawi
    Fisher, Monica M.; Shively, Gerald E.; Buccola, Steven (2005)
    We examine the determinants of activity choice affecting forest use among low-income
  • Agricultural change, rural labor markets, and forest clearing: An illustrative case from the Philippines
    Shively, Gerald E. (Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin Press, 2001)
    This paper investigates the relationship of agricultural employment and land use choices in upland tropical forest margins. The author combines models of lowland agricultural production and upland farm labor allocation to study the influence of labor productivity, agricultural wages, and economic returns on deforestation rates. Data collected from Philippine farms shows that adoption of lowland irrigation increased labor demand, providing employment to upland residents, and thus causing a small (but statistically significant) reduction in deforestation rates.
  • Agricultural diversification and integrated pest management in Bangladesh.
    Mahmoud, C.; Shively, Gerald E. (Agricultural Economics., 2004)
    We study factors associated with a shift toward diversified, high-valued vegetable crops and the incentives associated with the use of IPM methods for vegetable producers in Bangladesh. The primary objective is to measure how IPM technologies affect the crop and technology choices of low-income rice farmers. A three-season household optimisation model is used to study crop and technology choice under price and yield uncertainty. The model is parameterised using data from vegetable farms and experimental IPM trials conducted in Bangladesh. Simulation results show that access to IPM technology and IPM availability combined with access to credit increase household welfare and lead to higher rates of vegetable adoption. Off-farm employment opportunities work against vegetable cultivation and IPM use by risk-averse farmers. Implications for policy and extension efforts are highlighted.
  • Agricultural intensification, local labor markets, and deforestation in the Philippines
    Shively, Gerald E.; Pagiola, Stefano (Cambridge University Press, 2004)
    This paper examines agricultural intensification and its impact on deforestation in a frontier region of the Philippines. Panel data covering the period 1994-2000 are used to study labor demand and resource reallocation in response to lowland irrigation development. Results illustrate how irrigation has led to changes in employment, incomes, and activities at the forest margin. Findings indicate that the off-farm employment opportunities created by irrigation development have helped to reduce rates of forest clearing. Although some initial employment gains have been reversed, wage-induced increases in agricultural productivity in the uplands have reduced forest pressure. Results show that lowland irrigation has had direct, indirect, and lagged effects on rates of forest clearing, and that a virtuous cycle may be at play, with irrigation leading to both poverty reduction and reduced forest pressure.
  • Agricultural subsidies and forest pressure in Malawi's Miombo woodlands
    Fisher, M.; Shively, Gerald E. (2007)
    This paper examines impacts of an agricultural subsidy program on forest pressure in Malawi. Using household survey data, we measure the effect on forest product marketing and on forest clearing of Malawi's Starter Pack Scheme (SPS). Regression results show households receiving a free packet of hybrid maize seed and chemical fertilizer (a "starter pack") had lower levels of commercial forest extraction than nonrecipient households. In addition, no measurable effect of starter pack receipt is found on forest clearing decisions, suggesting the program raised agricultural output without encouraging agricultural expansion. Findings thus indicate potential modest improvement in forest condition due to the SPS.
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    Assessing local and national policy options to promote sustainable upland farming in Southeast Asia: Insights from an economy-environment model of the Manupali Watershed
    Shively, Gerald E.; Zelek, C. (2001)
    Do the most promising policies to promote sustainable upland farming originate at the local or national level? Will coordination of local and national efforts produce better outcomes? Using a optimization-simulation model of the Manupali watershed in the Philippines we address these issues by comparing the economic and environmental effects of four sets of stylized policy changes: (1) local policies that restrict some forms of land use; (2) local attempts to subsidize environment-friendly technologies; (3) a crop-specific tax levied on vegetable producers; and (4) a hybrid approach that seeks to coordinate local technology initiatives with broader-based incentives rooted in pricing policy. We study the economic and environmental impacts of these stylized policy changes over a 10- year time horizon.
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    Assessing the prospects for carbon seqestration in the Manupali watershed, Philippines
    Shively, Gerald E. (Watkinsville, Ga.: SANREM CRSP, 2003)
    This brief presents results of a study to measure the costs of carbon storage on farms in the Philippines. The Philippines ranks seventh among the top twenty tropical countries in ability to sequester carbon. The method used in this study relies on a three-step process to assess the costs of sequestering carbon over a 10- year horizon. First, a measure of the value of land to farmers is derived. This is based on current and predicted agricultural land uses. Second, the potential for lands of different qualities to sequester carbon over time is measured, based on conversion to forest and agroforest systems. Third, the annual payments necessary to compensate farmers for changes in land use to sequester carbon are calculated. These payments, converted to present value terms, constitute the potential cost of sequestering carbon through changes in land use.
  • Can income programs reduce tropical forest pressure? Income shocks and forest use in Malawi
    Fisher, Monica M.; Shively, Gerald E. (2005)
    Seasonal household data from Malawi are used to study links between income shocks and forest use. A Tobit model is estimated to examine whether household forest use responds to receipt of a positive income shock (delivered as a technology assistance package), and the characteristics of households reliant on forests for shock coping. Results show households experiencing an income boost had lower forest extraction compared to households that did not receive such a shock, ceteris paribus. We find households most dependent on forests for natural insurance are those located near woodlands and headed by an individual who is relatively young and male.
  • Carbon sequestration in a tropical landscape: An economic model to measure its incremental cost
    Shively, Gerald E.; Zelek, C.; Midmore, David J.; Nissen, Todd M. (Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004)
    This article reports on the incremental cost of carbon sequestration in forestry and agroforestry systems, calculating the potential and cost of carbon storage with the tropical tree species Paraserianthes falcataria. The authors use an economic model in the Manupali Watershed of the Bukidnon Province in the Philippines that takes into account the opportunity cost of converting land from annual cropping systems to tree-based systems. They find that the cost of storing carbon through reforestation ranges from $3.30 / ton for conversion of fallowed land to $62.50 / ton for conversion of highly productive crop land. They suggest that the lower marginal cost of conversion to agroforesty supports a preference towards agroforestry systems rather than pure forestry.
  • Coffee boom, coffee bust, and smallholder response in Vietnam's central highlands
    Ha, Dang Thanh; Shively, Gerald E. (Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2007)
    This paper studies the recent boom and bust in Vietnam's coffee economy. Data from smallholder coffee farms in the Central Highlands are used to examine responses to a drop in producer coffee prices. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to identify several factors associated with four specific patterns observed among coffee farmers: no response to price change, reductions in use of purchased inputs, changes in crop mix, and responses aimed at enhancing liquidity through off-farm work or borrowing. Patterns of response are shown to have differed systematically across sub-groups of smallholders. Policy implications raised by the findings are discussed.
  • Coffee vs. cacao: A case study from the Vietnamese Central Highlands
    Ha, Dang Thanh; Shively, Gerald E. (American Society of Agronomy, 2005)
    Mr. Nam, the vice chair of a village in Dak Lak province of Vietnam, was keen to protect farmers in his village from the sharp decline in prices of coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex Froehner). He did this by encouraging farmers in his village to plant cacao (Theobroma cacao L. subsp. cacao). Cacao was suitable to the soil and climate of the area, and because a foreign company had promised to buy cacao from the farmers, it seemed to offer greater financial security. However, uncertainty about crop losses due to pests, the cost of chemicals such as pesticides, and potential fluctuations in the prices of cacao made it imperative to carefully evaluate the benefits of cacao production. In making his recommendation to the village, Mr. Nam utilized additional information about the potential demand and the marketing networks for cacao. The decision to switch from coffee to cacao provides a village-level example of learning about agricultural supply and demand issues, perennial crop production, and economic and environmental consequences of growing particular crops. This case was written for undergraduate students in agriculture and forestry programs at Nong Lam University. Students were expected to understand
  • Competing for coffee space: Development-induced displacement in the central highlands of Vietnam
    Doutriaux, S.; Geisler, C.; Shively, Gerald E. (Rural Sociological Society, 2008)
    This article investigates the impact of coffee production on ethnic equality in Vietnam. As the second largest coffee exporter in the world, coffee has been a major contributor to economic development and success. However, it is observed that the economic benefits of coffee production have been unevenly distributed between native and non-native groups. Vietnam has become one of the most successful socialist nations due in large part to its coffee production, but this has come at the expense of the overall goal of economic and social equality.
  • Conducting economic policy analysis at a landscape level: examples from a dynamic model of a Philippine watershed.
    Shively, Gerald E.; Coxhead, Ian (2004)
    Given the strong and growing policy concern about high rates of hillside erosion and downstream sedimentation associated with upland agriculture, there is a need for analytical tools that can be easily used by researchers and environmental managers at several levels. In order to help meet this need, this paper presents an approach to policy modeling that emphasizes links between
  • Development policies, resource constraints, and agricultural expansion on the Philippine land frontier
    Coxhead, Ian; Shively, Gerald E.; Shuai, X. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002)
    This paper addresses the interactions between development policies and upland agriculture expansion with a model of household-level responses to economic and technical factors, based on characteristics of the household and farming system. The authors assess the validity of the model with data from farm households in the region bordering the Mt Kitanglad Range National Park in southern Mindanao, using results of surveying low income corn and vegetable farms. Crop prices and productivity influenced land allocation within a farm, though the different crops generated different influences. Crops were expanded primarily through land substitution and increased input levels, but when prices or productivity of other crops changed, the expansion occurred in the total farm area. The constraints of land and family labor also have varying influences for different crops. The complex interactions and influences of different factors and policies suggest that environmental policies must correspondingly include multiple conditions if they are to effectively mitigate incentives for land expansion.
  • Economic policies and the environment: The case of tree planting on low-income farms in the Philippines
    Shively, Gerald E. (Cambridge, UK ; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1998)
    This paper assesses the influences of economic policies and agricultural prices on farmers' land use decisions and the environmental consequences. The author applies a stochastic dynamic household model to study the tree planting decisions made by small holder farmers in the Philippines. The simulation results reveal that both the relative prices and the variability of the prices significantly influence tree planting choices. Although low-income farmers are wary of the risks of tree crop adoption, the aversion to risk can be with policies that make tree crops more attractive choices. This paper also discusses the influence of cropping patterns on soil erosion and local biodiversity.
  • Economic reform and food prices: Evidence from markets in Ghana
    Alderman, Harold; Shively, Gerald E. (Elsevier, 1996)
    The paper investigates trends in food prices in Ghana between 1970-93, during which time a range economic reforms were instigated. Regression results confirm that real wholesale prices of food have been declining since the 1970s. Price trends in the 1980s are characterized by a downward shift at the beginning of the post reform period and a subsequent continuing downward trend. Despite falling grain prices, it is found that agricultural wage rates failed to provide an adequate basis for subsistence, particularly during periods of large seasonal price rises. Many farmers hold grain for both speculation and to smooth income. This view is supported by evidence regarding seasonal price spreads that have been increasing since 1984. No support was found, however, for conclusions of trader manipulation of marketing margins during the adjustment period.
  • Externalities and labour market linkages in a dynamic two-sector model of tropical agriculture.
    Shively, Gerald E. (2006)
    Economic and environmental linkages between two parallel agricultural systems,
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    Farm size and nonparametric efficiency measurements for coffee farms in Vietnam
    Rios, A. R.; Shively, Gerald E. (American Agricultural Economics Association, 2005)
    We study the efficiency of smallholder coffee farms in Vietnam. Data from a 2004 survey of farms in two districts in Dak Lak Province are used in a two-step analysis. In the first step, technical and cost efficiency measures are calculated using DEA. In the second step, Tobit regressions are used to identify factors correlated with technical and cost inefficiency. Results indicate that small farms were less efficient than large farms. Inefficiencies observed on small farms appear to be related, in part, to the scale of investments in irrigation infrastructure.
  • Food aid, food prices and producer disincentives in Ethiopia
    Tadese, G.; Shively, Gerald E. (Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, 2009)
    Although the short-term aims of food aid are well conceived, strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long-term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries. This paper examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in Ethiopia over the period 1996-2006. Monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices. Results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets. These effects, however, appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed. A recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges. Food aid shipments that constitute less than 10% of domestic production appear to be benign, but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets. We use a simple policy simulation to argue that production-sensitive targeting, e.g. conditioning food aid on local food production, would help to circumvent disincentive effects.
  • How might shadow price restrictions reduce technical efficiency? Evidence from a restricted DEA analysis of coffee farms in Vietnam
    Garcia, A.; Shively, Gerald E. (Maldon, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2010)
    This article analyzes the effect of potential restrictions on the shadow prices of chemical inputs on technical efficiency among smallholder coffee farmers in Vietnam. Population growth and an increase in the amount of land being converted to coffee farms has caused rapid depletion and degradation of natural resources in many regions. In addition, high international prices for coffee and high government incentives have influenced many farmers to switch to coffee production. Because of increased coffee farming activities, there is an increased need to apply chemical inputs, such as pesticides and herbicides, to the land. This study used an input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA) model to analyze whether reducing the amount of chemicals used, in an effort to increase environmental quality, will negatively impact the technical efficiency for smallholders. The results showed that restricting the shadow price of chemical inputs does not drastically affect patterns or measures of short-run efficiency. Therefore, the health of the environment can be improved with only small sacrifices in technical efficiency at the smallholder level.