Global Change Center

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Interfaces of Global Change Newsletter, October 2014
(Virginia Tech, 2014-10)
Welcome to the first edition of the Interfaces of Global Change newsletter, part of our effort to keep you informed about the activities and accomplishments of our growing global change community at Virginia Tech.
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
Mann, Michael E. (2015-03-20)
The Interfaces of Global Change Program at Virginia Tech is proud to host Dr. Michael Mann for a science communication workshop and public lecture on Friday, March 20, 2015. Dr. Mann is an award-winning climate scientist and central figure in the political debate over climate change. His lecture at the Lyric Theatre will be followed by a brief Q&A session and book signing. Dr. Michael E. Mann is a Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University, with joint appointments in the Department of Geosciences and the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). He is also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC). Dr. Mann received his undergraduate degrees in Physics and Applied Math from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.S. degree in Physics from Yale University, and a Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University. His research involves the use of theoretical models and observational data to better understand Earth’s climate system. Dr. Mann was a Lead Author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report in 2001 and was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003. He has received a number of honors and awards including NOAA’s outstanding publication award in 2002 and selection by Scientific American as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. He contributed, with other IPCC authors, to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2012 and was awarded the National Conservation Achievement Award for science by the National Wildlife Federation in 2013. He made Bloomberg News’ list of fifty most influential people in 2013. In 2014, he was named Highly Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) and received the Friend of the Planet Award from the National Center for Science Education. He is a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. Dr. Mann is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and has published two books including Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming in 2008 and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines in 2012. He is also a co-founder and avid contributor to the award-winning science website RealClimate.org.
Global Change Center Newsletter, June 2015
(Virginia Tech, 2015-06)
This newsletter provides information about the activities and accomplishments of the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech.
Should We Trust Science? Perspectives from the History and Philosophy of Science
Oreskes, Naomi (Virginia Tech. University Libraries, 2015-09-02)
The Global Change Center at Virginia Tech welcomed Dr. Naomi Oreskes, Harvard historian and author, for a Distinguished Lecture on September 2, 2015, at 4:00 p.m. at the Lyric Theatre in Blacksburg, VA. Dr. Oreskes is a professor of the history of science and affiliated professor of Earth and planetary sciences at Harvard University. Her research focuses on the earth and environmental sciences, with a particular interest in understanding scientific consensus and dissent. Dr. Oreskes has received international acclaim for her 2010 book, "Merchants of Doubt, How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco to Global Warming," co-authored with Erik M. Conway. It was shortlisted for the Los Angeles Time Book Prize, received the 2011 Watson-Davis Prize from the History of Science Society, and was recently adapted into a documentary film. Dr. Oreskes' visit represents the second in a Public Distinguished Lecture Series sponsored by the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech. The lecture series is designed to bring some of the world's leading scholars to the Blacksburg community to discuss critical environmental and societal issues in an open forum.
Global Change Center Newsletter, February 2016
(Virginia Tech, 2016-02)
This newsletter captures a few of the highlights from the fall 2015 semester at the Global Change Center.
Living in the Anthropocene: Science, Sustainability and Society
Tewksbury, Joshua (Virginia Tech. University Libraries, 2016-04-21)
Dr. Joshua Tewksbury is an ecologist, conservation biologist, and planetary health scientist with experience both in academia and in civil society. In addition to his appointment at Future Earth, Tewksbury is also a research professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and a senior scholar in the School of Global Environmental Sustainability at Colorado State University. During his visit, Tewksbury met with students in the Interfaces of Global Change Interdisciplinary Graduate Education Program. "Dr. Tewksbury is leading the charge to advance conservation and sustainability initiatives on a global scale," said William A. Hopkins, director of the Global Change Center. As director of the U.S. office of Future Earth, he is working with a broad international coalition of groups like the United Nations to pursue what has been called "possibly the largest, most ambitious international research program ever undertaken. As Virginia Tech is poised to advance its collective strengths in the environmental sciences, we are thrilled to have such an outstanding leader visit Blacksburg to engage in a community-wide discussion about critical issues facing our planet." Tewksbury was previously the Walker Professor of Natural History at the University of Washington, with appointments both in the department of biology and the College of the Environment, where his work focused on major global change issues, including the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, the potential of landscape connectivity to mitigate the impacts of climate change, and the impacts of species loss on ecosystem function. In addition to more than a decade of academic work, Tewksbury also served as the founding director of the Luc Hoffmann Institute at WWF, a global research center based in Switzerland focused on the co-creation of multi-disciplinary research. As director, Tewksbury launched over a dozen research projects, including work on the Food-Energy-Water nexus in South-East Asia, development corridors in East Africa, global mapping of threats to biodiversity, and the development of regionally-appropriate low-carbon sustainability targets for urban areas. Tewksbury's current research interests include studies of direct and indirect effects of climate change on food security at large spatial scales, the potential of large-scale restoration to serve multiple human and biodiversity goals, and the contribution of science to large scale planetary health issues.
Global Change Center Newsletter, August 2016
(Virginia Tech, 2016-08)
This newsletter provides information about the activities and accomplishments of the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech.
Chasing Water in a Rapidly Changing World
Richter, Brian D. (Virginia Tech. University Libraries, 2017-04-07)
Water shortages are now affecting half the world’s population, disrupting food and energy security as well as urban water supplies in many cities. The overuse of water and associated drying of rivers, lakes, and aquifers has become a leading cause of freshwater species imperilment. Climate change forecasts foretell even greater challenges in many water-scarce regions. These threats to our water future can be ameliorated, but it will require bold and concerted action on the part of governments, city leaders, and farmers. This presentation will highlight the key solutions that must be implemented. “Brian Richter has been a global leader in water science and conservation for more than 25 years. He is the Chief Scientist for the Global Water Program of The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation organization, where he promotes sustainable water use and management with governments, corporations, and local communities. He is also the President of Sustainable Waters, a global water education organization. Brian has consulted on more than 120 water projects worldwide. He serves as a water advisor to some of the world’s largest corporations, investment banks, and the United Nations, and has testified before the U.S. Congress on multiple occasions. He also teaches a course on Water Sustainability at the University of Virginia. Brian has developed numerous scientific tools and methods to support river protection and restoration efforts, including the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software that is being used by water managers and scientists worldwide. Brian was featured in a BBC documentary with David Attenborough on “How Many People Can Live on Planet Earth?” He has published many scientific papers on the importance of ecologically sustainable water management in international science journals, and co-authored a book with Sandra Postel entitled Rivers for Life: Managing Water for People and Nature (Island Press, 2003). His new book, Chasing Water: A Guide for Moving from Scarcity to Sustainability, was published by Island Press in June 2014.” - National Geographic, http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/author/brichter/
Global Change Center Newsletter, July 2017
(Virginia Tech, 2017-07)
This newsletter provides information about the activities and accomplishments of the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech.
Global Change Center 2018 Distinguished Lecture: Dr. Kirk Johnson
Johnson, Kirk (Virginia Tech. University Libraries, 2018-03-16)
Dr. Kirk Johnson is a paleontologist who has led expeditions that have resulted in the discovery of more than 1,400 fossil sites. His research focuses on fossil plants and the extinction of dinosaurs. He is known for his scientific articles, popular books, museum exhibitions, documentaries, and collaborations with artists.
Coupled Human-Natural Modeling for Hydroelectric Development: Understanding the Health Impacts of America’s Renewable Energy Imports
Calder, Ryan S. D. (Duke University, 2019)
Hydropower accounts for 71% of renewable electrical generation worldwide, and installed capacity may more than double by 2050. Major hydroelectric projects involve construction of reservoirs to buffer the periodicity of river discharge, meaning hydropower typically does not suffer from supply intermittency of other renewables such as wind and solar. Meanwhile, average greenhouse gas emissions are likely substantially lower than fossil fuel alternatives per unit energy produced. Domestic hydropower production in the United States is unlikely to increase substantially in the foreseeable future, but imports from Canada play an increasingly important role in achieving renewable energy targets in northern U.S. markets....
Risk tradeoffs associated with traditional food advisories for Labrador Inuit
Calder, Ryan S. D.; Bromage, Sabri; Sunderland, Elsie M. (Elsevier, 2019-01-01)
The traditional Inuit diet includes wild birds, fish and marine mammals, which can contain high concentrations of the neurotoxicant methylmercury (MeHg). Hydroelectric development may increase MeHg concentrations in traditional foods. Consumption advisories are often used to mitigate such risks and can result in reduced intake of traditional foods. Data from a dietary survey, MeHg exposure assessment and risk analysis for individuals in three Inuit communities in Labrador, Canada (n = 1145) in 2014 indicate reducing traditional food intake is likely to exacerbate deficiencies in n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and vitamins B12 and B2. Traditional foods accounted for < 5% of per-capita calories but up to 70% of nutrients consumed. Although consumption advisories could lower neurodevelopmental risks associated with an increase in MeHg exposure (90th-percentile ∆IQ = − 0.12 vs. − 0.34), they may lead to greater risks of cardiovascular mortality (90th-percentile increase: + 58% to + 116% vs. + 25%) and cancer mortality (90th-percentile increase + 2% to + 4% vs. no increase). Conversely, greater consumption of locally caught salmon mostly unaffected by hydroelectric flooding would lower all these risks (90th-percentile ∆IQ = + 0.4; cardiovascular risk: − 45%; cancer risk: − 1.4%). We thus conclude that continued consumption of traditional foods is essential for Inuit health in these communities.
Global Change Lecture Series: How Culture Shapes the Climate Change Debate
Hoffman, Andrew (Virginia Tech. University Libraries, 2019-03-22)
Andrew Hoffman, the Holcim Professor of Sustainable Enterprise for University of Michigan and author, visited Virginia Tech on Friday, March 22, as part of The Global Change Center at Virginia Tech’s Distinguished Lecture Series. In this lecture, Hoffman will discuss the sociology and psychology of why people reject climate change and how to address this issue. He offers suggestions for building trust and effectively communicating despite opposing viewpoints, arguing that culture is the barrier to acting on climate change.
9th Hellbender Symposium
(Virginia Tech. Global Change Center, 2019-06)
The Hellbender Symposium is a biennial event where hellbender researchers from all over the United States and other parts of the world meet to present and discuss their research.
Linked within-host and between-host models and data for infectious diseases: a systematic review
Childs, Lauren M.; El Moustaid, Fadoua; Gajewski, Zachary J.; Kadelka, Sarah; Nikin-Beers, Ryan; Smith, John W. Jr.; Walker, Melody; Johnson, Leah R. (PeerJ, 2019-06-19)
The observed dynamics of infectious diseases are driven by processes across multiple scales. Here we focus on two: within-host, that is, how an infection progresses inside a single individual (for instance viral and immune dynamics), and between-host, that is, how the infection is transmitted between multiple individuals of a host population. The dynamics of each of these may be influenced by the other, particularly across evolutionary time. Thus understanding each of these scales, and the links between them, is necessary for a holistic understanding of the spread of infectious diseases. One approach to combining these scales is through mathematical modeling. We conducted a systematic review of the published literature on multi-scale mathematical models of disease transmission (as defined by combining within-host and between-host scales) to determine the extent to which mathematical models are being used to understand across-scale transmission, and the extent to which these models are being confronted with data. Following the PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews, we identified 24 of 197 qualifying papers across 30 years that include both linked models at the within and between host scales and that used data to parameterize/calibrate models. We find that the approach that incorporates both modeling with data is under-utilized, if increasing. This highlights the need for better communication and collaboration between modelers and empiricists to build well-calibrated models that both improve understanding and may be used for prediction.
Spiculogenesis and biomineralization in early sponge animals
Tang, Qing; Wan, Bin; Yuan, Xunlai; Muscente, A. D.; Xiao, Shuhai (Springer Nature, 2019-07-26)
Most sponges have biomineralized spicules. Molecular clocks indicate sponge classes diverged in the Cryogenian, but the oldest spicules are Cambrian in age. Therefore, sponges either evolved spiculogenesis long after their divergences or Precambrian spicules were not amenable to fossilization. The former hypothesis predicts independent origins of spicules among sponge classes and presence of transitional forms with weakly biomineralized spicules, but this prediction has not been tested using paleontological data. Here, we report an early Cambrian sponge that, like several other early Paleozoic sponges, had weakly biomineralized and hexactine-based siliceous spicules with large axial filaments and high organic proportions. This material, along with Ediacaran microfossils containing putative non-biomineralized axial filaments, suggests that Precambrian sponges may have had weakly biomineralized spicules or lacked them altogether, hence their poor record. This work provides a new search image for Precambrian sponge fossils, which are critical to resolving the origin of sponge spiculogenesis and biomineralization.
Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment
Tallis, Heather; Kreis, Katharine; Olander, Lydia P.; Ringler, Claudia; Ameyaw, David; Borsuk, Mark E.; Fletschner, Diana; Game, Edward; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Jeuland, Marc; Kennedy, Gina; Masuda, Yuta J.; Mehta, Sumi; Miller, Nicholas; Parker, Megan; Pollino, Carmel; Rajaratnam, Julie; Wilkie, David; Zhang, Wei; Ahmed, Selena; Ajayi, Oluyede C.; Alderman, Harold; Arhonditsis, George; Azevedo, Ines; Badola, Ruchi; Bailis, Rob; Balvanera, Patricia; Barbour, Emily; Bardini, Mark; Barton, David N.; Baumgartner, Jill; Benton, Tim G.; Bobrow, Emily; Bossio, Deborah; Bostrom, Ann; Braimoh, Ademola; Brondizio, Eduardo; Brown, Joe; Bryant, Benjamin P.; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Chaplin-Kramer, Becky; Cullen, Alison; DeMello, Nicole; Dickinson, Katherine L.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Eves, Heather E.; Fanzo, Jessica; Ferraro, Paul J.; Fisher, Brendan; Frongillo, Edward A.; Galford, Gillian; Garrity, Dennis; Gatere, Lydiah; Grieshop, Andrew P.; Grigg, Nicola J.; Groves, Craig; Gugerty, Mary Kay; Hamm, Michael; Hou, Xiaoyue; Huang, Cindy; Imhoff, Marc; Jack, Darby; Jones, Andrew D.; Kelsey, Rodd; Kothari, Monica; Kumar, Ritesh; Lachat, Carl; Larsen, Ashley E.; Lawrence, Mark; DeClerck, Fabrice; Levin, Phillip S.; Mabaya, Edward; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald; McDonald, Robert; Mace, Georgina; Maertens, Ricardo; Mangale, Dorothy; Martino, Robin; Mason, Sara A.; Mehta, Lyla; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; Merz, Barbara; Msangi, Siwa; Murray, Grant; Murray, Kris A.; Naude, Celeste E.; Newlands, Nathaniel K.; Nkonya, Ephraim; Peterman, Amber; Petruney, Tricia; Possingham, Hugh; Puri, Jyotsna; Remans, Roseline; Remlinger, Lisa; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Reta, Bedilu; Robinson, Brian E.; Roe, Dilys; Rosenthal, Joshua; Shen, Guofeng; Shindell, Drew; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Sunderland, Terry; Sutherland, William J.; Tewksbury, Joshua; Wasser, Heather; Wear, Stephanie; Webb, Chris; Whittington, Dale; Wilkerson, Marit; Wittmer, Heidi; Wood, Benjamin DK K.; Wood, Stephen; Wu, Joyce; Yadama, Gautam; Zobrist, Stephanie (Elsevier, 2019-08-01)
Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.
Forecasting ecosystem services to guide coastal wetland rehabilitation decisions
Calder, Ryan S. D.; Shi, Congjie; Mason, Sara A.; Olander, Lydia P.; Borsuk, Mark E. (Elsevier, 2019-10-01)
Coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services such as flood protection and recreational value. However, predicting changes in ecosystem service value fr0k from restoration or management is challenging because environmental systems are highly complex and uncertain. Furthermore, benefits are diverse and accrue over various timescales. We developed a generalizable mathematical coastal management model to compare restoration expenditures to ecosystem service benefits and apply it to McInnis Marsh, Marin County, California, USA. We find that benefits of restoration outweigh costs for a wide range of assumptions. For instance, costs of restoration range from 8–30% of the increase in ecosystem service value over 50 years depending on discount rate. Flood protection is the dominant monetized service for most payback periods and discount rates, but other services (e.g., recreation) dominate on shorter timescales (>50% of total value for payback periods ≤4 years). We find that the range of total ecosystem service value is narrower than overall variability reported in the literature, supporting the use of mechanistic methods in decision-making around coastal resiliency. However, the magnitude and relative importance of ecosystem services are sensitive to payback period, discount rate and risk tolerance, demonstrating the importance of probabilistic decision analysis. This work provides a modular, transferrable tool to that can also inform coastal resiliency investments elsewhere.
Modeling Temperature Effects on Population Density of the Dengue Mosquito Aedes aegypti
El Moustaid, Fadoua; Johnson, Leah R. (MDPI, 2019-11-07)
Mosquito density plays an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika. While it remains very challenging to estimate the density of mosquitoes, modelers have tried different methods to represent it in mathematical models. The goal of this paper is to investigate the various ways mosquito density has been quantified, as well as to propose a dynamical system model that includes the details of mosquito life stages leading to the adult population. We first discuss the mosquito traits involved in determining mosquito density, focusing on those that are temperature dependent. We evaluate different forms of models for mosquito densities based on these traits and explore their dynamics as temperature varies. Finally, we compare the predictions of the models to observations of Aedes aegypti abundances over time in Vitòria, Brazil. Our results indicate that the four models exhibit qualitatively and quantitatively different behaviors when forced by temperature, but that all seem reasonably consistent with observed abundance data.
The GCC Weekly, March 24, 2020
(Global Change Center at Virginia Tech, 2020-03-24)
This is the weekly newsletter for the Global Change Center at Virginia Tech.

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