Scholarly Works, Population Health Sciences

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Research articles, presentations, and other scholarship

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A framework for developing a real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system to support water quality management in the face of global change
Carey, Cayelan C.; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Figueiredo, Renato J.; Gramacy, Robert B.; Lofton, Mary E.; Schreiber, Madeline E.; Thomas, R. Quinn (Springer, 2024-09-20)
Phytoplankton blooms create harmful toxins, scums, and taste and odor compounds and thus pose a major risk to drinking water safety. Climate and land use change are increasing the frequency and severity of blooms, motivating the development of new approaches for preemptive, rather than reactive, water management. While several real-time phytoplankton forecasts have been developed to date, none are both automated and quantify uncertainty in their predictions, which is critical for manager use. In response to this need, we outline a framework for developing the first automated, real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system that quantifies uncertainty, thereby enabling managers to adapt operations and mitigate blooms. Implementation of this system calls for new, integrated ecosystem and statistical models; automated cyberinfrastructure; effective decision support tools; and training for forecasters and decision makers. We provide a research agenda for the creation of this system, as well as recommendations for developing real-time phytoplankton forecasts to support management.
Reviewing the recruitment and qualitative methods in deliberative valuation experiments
Jackson, Chloe; Mavrommati, Georgia; Howarth, Richard; Gazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-11)
Evaluation of a Participatory Action Planning Project to Address Opioid Misuse: Breaking Down Barriers Through Partnership Processes
Rafie, Carlin; Zimmerman, Emily; Reed, Dawn; Hargrove, Angelina (UTS ePress, 2024-12-19)
Community based participatory research and participatory action research are increasingly being used to engage communities in addressing social and health disparities. There is a need to develop broadly applicable evaluation methods that can be used across participatory project environments to identify the processes critical for addressing complex public health issues, as well as the productiveness of community research partnerships. We present a case study of a community participatory project conducted over three years and our evaluation approach. We used the Community Based Participatory Research Conceptual Model as the framework for the evaluation surveys (n=9) and interviews (n=7) with project participants, querying perspectives on the four model domains: community context, partnership processes, intervention and research and outcomes. In addition, we conducted a Ripple Effects Mapping (REM) exercise with ten community members to determine the broader impacts of the project on the community. This mixed-methods approach permitted us to confirm findings from quantitative surveys with qualitative findings from interviews and the REM. Key processes identified as facilitators to a productive partnership and positive outcomes include a context of trust, effective implementation of processes that establish equitable partner relationships and partnership synergy, a clearly defined focus for the partnership and a structured participatory research method that helped break down silos and mobilise the community for action. Our project evaluation approach, combining the CBPR model and REM, guided measurement of common metrics that are key to effective community engagement as well as exploration of unanticipated outcomes.
Analyzing multiple-source water usage patterns and affordability in rural central Appalachia
Dudzinski, Emerald; Ellis, Kimberly P.; Krometis, Leigh-Anne H.; Albi, Kate; Cohen, Alasdair (2024-07-18)
Nearly 500,000 American households lack complete plumbing, and more than 21 million Americans are reliant on public drinking water systems with at least one annual health-based drinking water violation. Rural, low-income, and minority communities are significantly more likely to be burdened with unavailable or unsafe in-home drinking water. Lack of access and distrust of the perceived quality of municipally supplied water are leading an increasing number of Americans to rely instead on less regulated, more expensive, and potentially environmentally detrimental water sources, such as roadside springs and bottled water. Previous research studies have stressed the importance of considering the economic burden of all water related expenditures including financial and non-financial water related costs; however, past examinations of water costs have primarily focused on municipal water supplies. We propose an economic model to consider the full economic burden associated with multiple-source water use by incorporating both direct costs (e.g., utility bills, well maintenance, bottled water purchase, payments for water hauling/delivery) and indirect water-related expenditures (e.g., transportation costs to gather water, productivity lost due to time spent collecting). Using data gathered from household surveys along with the economic model, this study estimates the economic burden from two case studies in rural Central Appalachia with persistent water quality concerns: (1) McDowell County, WV (n=15) and (2) Letcher and Harlan Counties, KY (n=9). All surveyed households (n=24) rely on multiple-source water to meet their needs, frequently citing their perception of unsafe in-home tap water. Bottled water was the most common choice for drinking water in both settings (92%, n=24), though roadside spring use was also prevalent in McDowell County, WV (53%, n=15). The results show that multiple-water source use is associated with a large economic burden. Households reliant primarily on bottled water as their drinking water source spent 12.3% (McDowell County, WV) and 5.6% (Letcher and Harlan Counties, KY) of their respective county’s median household income (MHI) on water related expenditures. Households reliant primarily on roadside springs as their drinking water source spent 11.8% (McDowell County, WV) of MHI on water related expenditures. Hence, the vast majority of participating households (92%, n=24) spend above the US water affordability threshold of 2% MHI. The application of this economic model highlights major water affordability concerns in water insecure Appalachian communities and provides a foundation for future studies and enhancements.
Identifying Barriers and Bridging Gaps Between Researchers and Decision Makers in Water Quality Modeling
Chowdhury, Mahabub; Carey, Cayelan C.; Figueiredo, Renato; Gramacy, Robert; Hoffman, Kathryn; Lofton, Mary; Patil, Parul; Schreiber, Madeline; Thomas, R. Quinn; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-12)
Modeling forest dynamics to characterize delivery of ecosystem services on military installations across the United States
Matthews, Emily; Abowd, Laurel; Borsuk, Mark E.; Krapu, Christopher; Mangin, Tracey; Mason, Sara; Olander, Lydia P.; Plantinga, Andrew; Warnell, Katie; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-13)
Causal inference to scope environmental impact assessment of renewable energy projects and test competing mental models of decarbonization
Gazar, Amir M.; Borsuk, Mark E.; Calder, Ryan S. D. (IOP Publishing, 2024-11-25)
Environmental impact assessment (EIA), life cycle analysis (LCA), and cost benefit analysis (CBA) embed crucial but subjective judgments over the extent of system boundaries and the range of impacts to consider as causally connected to an intervention, decision, or technology of interest. EIA is increasingly the site of legal, political, and social challenges to renewable energy projects proposed by utilities, developers, and governments, which, cumulatively, are slowing decarbonization. Environmental advocates in the United States have claimed that new electrical interties with Canada increase development of Canadian hydroelectric resources, leading to environmental and health impacts associated with new reservoirs. Assertions of such second-order impacts of two recently proposed 9.5 TWh yr−1 transborder transmission projects played a role in their cancellation. We recast these debates as conflicting mental models of decarbonization, in which values, beliefs, and interests lead different parties to hypothesize causal connections between interrelated processes (in this case, generation, transmission, and associated impacts). We demonstrate via Bayesian network modeling that development of Canadian hydroelectric resources is stimulated by price signals and domestic demand rather than increased export capacity per se. However, hydropower exports are increasingly arranged via long-term power purchase agreements that may promote new generation in a way that is not easily modeled with publicly available data. We demonstrate the utility of causal inference for structured analysis of sociotechnical systems featuring phenomena that are not easily modeled mechanistically. In the setting of decarbonization, such analysis can fill a gap in available energy systems models that focus on long-term optimum portfolios and do not generally represent questions of incremental causality of interest to stakeholders at the local level. More broadly, these tools can increase the evidentiary support required for consequentialist (as opposed to attributional) LCA and CBA, for example, in calculating indirect emissions of renewable energy projects.
Forecasting the impact of climate change on pathogen exposures from concentrated animal feeding operations
Chowdhury, Mahabub; Borsuk, Mark E.; Robinson, Celine S.; Krapu, Christopher; Calder, Ryan S. D. (2024-12-10)
Treatment of cattle with ivermectin and its effect on dung degradation and larval abundance in a tropical savanna setting
Ruhinda, Miriam; Xia, Kang; Rist, Cassidy; Shija, Gerald; Lyimo, Issa N.; Meza, Felician; Brewster, Carlyle; Chaccour, Carlos; Rabinovich, N. Regina; Schuerch, Roger (Elsevier, 2024-12-12)
When ingested as part of a blood meal, the antiparasitic drug ivermectin kills mosquitoes, making it a candidate for mass drug administration (MDA) in humans and livestock to reduce malaria transmission. When administered to livestock, most ivermectin is excreted unmetabolized in the dung within 5 days post administration. Presence of ivermectin, has been shown to adversely affect dung colonizers and dung degradation in temperate settings; however, those findings may not apply to, tropical environment, where ivermectin MDA against malaria would occur. Here we report results of a randomized field experiment conducted with dung from ivermectin-treated and control cattle to determine the effect of ivermectin on dung degradation in tropical Tanzania. For intact pats, we measured termite colonization, larval numbers and pat wet and dry weights. Pat organic matter was interpolated from a subsample of the pat (10 g wet weight). Additionally, we counted larvae growing in the treated and untreated pats in a semi-field setting. We found that termites colonized ivermectin pats more readily than controls. Despite this, wet weight decreased significantly slower in the ivermectin-treated pats in the first two weeks. As water was lost, sub-sample dry weight increased, and organic matter decreased similarly over time for the treatment and control. Interpolated for whole pats, total organic matter was higher, and larval counts were lower in the ivermectin-treated pats after the first month. Our results demonstrate an effect of ivermectin and its metabolites on dung degradation and fauna in a tropical savanna setting. Because slow dung degradation and low insect abundance negatively impact pastureland, these non-target, environmental effects must be further investigated within the context of real-world implementation of ivermectin MDA in cattle and weighed against the potential benefits for malaria control.
Resolving competing trends in vulnerability and coastal hazard frequency: implications for mortality forecasts
Calder, Ryan S. D.; Timilsina, Saurav; Gohlke, Julia M.; Swarup, Samarth; Zaitchik, Benjamin (2024-12-12)
Theileria orientalis Ikeda infection does not negatively impact growth performance or breeding soundness exam results in young beef bulls at bull test stations
Guynn, Sierra R.; Greiner, Scott P.; Currin, John F.; Todd, S. Michelle; Assenga, Alphonce; Hungerford, Laura L.; Lahmers, Kevin K. (Frontiers, 2024-07-18)
Introduction: Theileria orientalis Ikeda genotype is an emerging cattle disease in the US. Since 2017, when T. orientalis Ikeda was discovered in beef cattle in two counties in Virginia, cattle infections have risen to include ~67% of Virginia counties and 14 states. Consistent with New Zealand studies, many infected herds in Virginia were >90% positive upon initial testing without overt evidence of infection. Central bull tests present a unique opportunity to study the effects of T. orientalis Ikeda infections, as bulls from multiple source herds are consolidated. The objective of this study was to determine if infection with T. orientalis Ikeda affected the average daily gain (ADG), adjusted yearling weight (AYW) and breeding soundness of bulls at two test stations in Virginia over a period of years. Materials and methods: The bulls were fed and housed similarly to compare their growth performance and breeding soundness. For T. orientalis Ikeda testing, DNA was extracted from whole blood for quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Results: The number of bulls infected with T. orientalis Ikeda at initial delivery to the stations increased significantly over the years studied. Multivariable linear regression models, using Angus bulls from Virginia test stations, indicated no significant effect on ADG or AYW in bulls that became test positive during the test or were positive for the duration, compared to Angus bulls that were negative for the duration. At LOC A, the odds of passing a breeding soundness exam (BSE) were not significantly different for bulls that turned positive during the test or were positive for the duration, compared to bulls that were negative for the duration of the test. At LOC B, bulls that became positive during the test were 2.4 times more likely (95% CI: 1.165–4.995, p = 0.016) to pass their BSE compared to bulls that remained negative throughout the test. Discussion: We do not suppose that an obscured infection of T. orientalis Ikeda is protective for bulls to pass a BSE. However, this study demonstrates an obscured infection of T. orientalis Ikeda does not negatively affect weight gain or achievement of a satisfactory BSE rating at the central bull test stations in Virginia.
Canadian hydroelectricity imports to the U.S.; Modeling of hourly carbon emissions reduction in New England
Mortazavigazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Howarth, Rich B.; Jackson, Chloe A.; Mavrommati, Georgia (2024-04-05)
United States’ hydroelectricity imports from Canada have increased by > 1 TWh per year between 2007 and 2021. This occurs as policymakers in the U.S. try to ramp up the deployment of new carbon free electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, recent modeling in the northeast U.S. demonstrates that Canadian hydroelectricity will play a significant role in New England’s least-cost decarbonization scenario. Additionally, decarbonization targets are well- defined in all states within the New England region, making it a priority. Consequently, it is anticipated that more hydroelectricity will flow from Canada into New England, resulting in the expansion of transborder electricity interconnections. To characterize the costs and benefits of such projects as compared to alternatives, a high-resolution simulation (i.e., hourly) of the electric grid is needed. In this study, we utilize the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's dataset on hourly electricity generation and carbon emissions. Using pre-established decarbonization scenarios, we can calculate the precise reduction in greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions for each scenario. Our preliminary results demonstrate that the scenario projection for 2026–2027 by New England ISO, which involves a combination of Canadian hydroelectric imports (2100 MW summer, 826 MW winter), new wind (308 MW summer and 682 MW), and solar (92 MW summer, 28 MW winter) generation commitments, can effectively offset carbon emissions in New England. These results further support the current decarbonization policy, which relies on a diversified mix of carbon free electricity sources.
Integrating health, economic, and environmental trade-offs into decarbonization decision-making in New England using enhanced capacity expansion modeling
Mortazavigazar, Amir; Calder, Ryan S. D.; Howarth, Richard B.; Jackson, Chloe A.; Mavrommati, Georgia (2024-07-15)
Decision support for United States – Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity
Calder, Ryan S. D.; Dimanchev, Emil; Cohen, Stuart; McManamay, Ryan A. (IOP Publishing, 2024-09-02)
The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed projects cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand the economic, environmental, and health tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g., streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g., costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer, and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national scale public data exist in other countries, notably, United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.
Re: Testimony on four bills: B25-421 (“License Suspension Reform”); B25-422 (“Automated Traffic Enforcement”); B25-425 (“Strengthening Traffic Enforcement, Education, and Responsibility (‘STEER’))”; and B25-435 (“Fraudulent Vehicle Tag Enforcement”)
Calder, Ryan S. D. (2023-10-18)
Re: Evidence basis for interventions in dangerous driving – follow-up to testimony of May 23, 2023
Calder, Ryan S. D. (2023-06-06)
Re: Urgent action needed on traffic violence in Washington, D.C.
Calder, Ryan S. D.; Koopman, Phil; Batra, Sonal; Douglas, Katherine; Paichadze, Nino; Breehey, Sonya; Kwan, Christy; Hall, Faith; Baca, Alex; Gray, Peter; Doyle, Mike; Lowery, Jeremiah (2023-05-08)
SARS-CoV-2 Rapidly Infects Peripheral Sensory and Autonomic Neurons, Contributing to Central Nervous System Neuroinvasion before Viremia
Joyce, Jonathan D.; Moore, Greyson A.; Goswami, Poorna; Harrell, Telvin L.; Taylor, Tina M.; Hawks, Seth A.; Green, Jillian C.; Jia, Mo; Irwin, Matthew D.; Leslie, Emma; Duggal, Nisha K.; Thompson, Christopher K.; Bertke, Andrea S. (MDPI, 2024-07-28)
Neurological symptoms associated with COVID-19, acute and long term, suggest SARS-CoV-2 affects both the peripheral and central nervous systems (PNS/CNS). Although studies have shown olfactory and hematogenous invasion into the CNS, coinciding with neuroinflammation, little attention has been paid to susceptibility of the PNS to infection or to its contribution to CNS invasion. Here we show that sensory and autonomic neurons in the PNS are susceptible to productive infection with SARS-CoV-2 and outline physiological and molecular mechanisms mediating neuroinvasion. Our infection of K18-hACE2 mice, wild-type mice, and golden Syrian hamsters, as well as primary peripheral sensory and autonomic neuronal cultures, show viral RNA, proteins, and infectious virus in PNS neurons, satellite glial cells, and functionally connected CNS tissues. Additionally, we demonstrate, in vitro, that neuropilin-1 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 neuronal entry. SARS-CoV-2 rapidly invades the PNS prior to viremia, establishes a productive infection in peripheral neurons, and results in sensory symptoms often reported by COVID-19 patients.
Developing medical simulations for opioid overdose response training: A qualitative analysis of narratives from responders to overdoses
Edwards, G. Franklin; Mierisch, Cassandra; Mutcheson, Brock; Coleman, Keel; Horn, Kimberly; Parker, Sarah Henrickson (PLOS, 2024-03-28)
Medical simulation offers a controlled environment for studying challenging clinical care situations that are difficult to observe directly. Overdose education and naloxone distribution (OEND) programs aim to train potential rescuers in responding to opioid overdoses, but assessing rescuer performance in real-life situations before emergency medical services arrive is exceedingly complex. There is an opportunity to incorporate individuals with firsthand experience in treating out-of-hospital overdoses into the development of simulation scenarios. Realistic overdose simulations could provide OEND programs with valuable tools to effectively teach hands-on skills and support context-sensitive training regimens. In this research, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 individuals experienced in responding to opioid overdoses including emergency department physicians, first responders, OEND program instructors, and peer recovery specialists. Two coders conducted qualitative content analysis using open and axial thematic coding to identify nuances associated with illicit and prescription opioid overdoses. The results are presented as narrative findings complemented by summaries of the frequency of themes across the interviews. Over 20 hours of audio recording were transcribed verbatim and then coded. During the open and axial thematic coding process several primary themes, along with subthemes, were identified, highlighting the distinctions between illicit and prescription opioid overdoses. Distinct contextual details, such as locations, clinical presentations, the environment surrounding the patient, and bystanders’ behavior, were used to create four example simulations of outof- hospital overdoses. The narrative findings in this qualitative study offer context-sensitive information for developing out-of-hospital overdose scenarios applicable to simulation training. These insights can serve as a valuable resource, aiding instructors and researchers in systematically creating evidence-based scenarios for both training and research purposes.
Addressing opioid misuse through community-engaged strategy development: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial
Zimmerman, Emily B.; Rafie, Carlin; Wenzel, Sophie G.; Hosig, Kathryn; Villani, Domenique; Dance, Jon; Lee, Samantha S. (2024-07-19)
Background: Involving stakeholders in the research process facilitates collaboration, increasing understanding of factors influencing their wellbeing and motivating community action. Currently, there is a need for randomized controlled trials to evaluate the effectiveness of community-engaged research approaches for health, well-being, and engagement outcomes. In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of both the SEED Method and a modified Delphi method in a participatory project to develop local strategies to address the opioid epidemic in three rural communities. The purpose of this study is to increase the level of evidence for community-engaged research methods through a randomized controlled trial. Methods: Two communities will use the SEED Method and one will use a modified Delphi method. We aim to recruit a total of 144 participants (48 per community). The evaluation team will randomize participants to an intervention group or a control group. In addition, we will collect outcome data from the participatory research team members leading the projects in each county (n = 18) and from additional community members who participate in focus groups (n = 32). The primary outcome for all participants will be the change in self-reported civic engagement as measured by the total score on the Individual Mobilization Scale. Discussion: In the context of participatory action to address opioid misuse in rural counties, this study will provide an understanding of the effectiveness of two community engagement methods for increasing civic engagement, as well as the extent to which participants successfully create locally tailored action strategies. The study will also explore how the observed effects differ depending on the participant’s role in the project (stakeholder participant, community research team member, or focus group participant), which is an important consideration for participatory research.

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