Scholarly Works, Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation
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- Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change actionDietze, Michael; White, Ethan P.; Abeyta, Antoinette; Boettiger, Carl; Bueno Watts, Nievita; Carey, Cayelan C.; Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Ernest, S. K. Morgan; Figueiredo, Renato J.; Gerst, Michael D.; Johnson, Leah R.; Kenney, Melissa A.; McLachlan, Jason S.; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch.; Peters, Jody A.; Rollinson, Christine R.; Simonis, Juniper; Sullivan-Wiley, Kira; Thomas, R. Quinn; Wardle, Glenda M.; Willson, Alyssa M.; Zwart, Jacob (Springer Nature, 2024-11-08)A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.
- Interflow, subsurface stormflow and throughflow: A synthesis of field work and modellingMcGuire, Kevin J.; Klaus, Julian; Jackson, C. Rhett (Wiley, 2024-09-03)Interflow, throughflow and subsurface stormflow are interchangeable terms that refer to the lateral subsurface flow above a restricting layer of lower hydraulic con- ductivity that occurs during and following storm events. Interflow (used here) is a more dominant process in steeper catchments with high infiltration capacity soils overlying a more impermeable soil or geologic layer. Interflow as a runoff process was first recognised in the early 1900s, yet hydrologists still struggle to predict its occurrence, persistence, importance, interaction with other streamflow generation processes, and potential to connect to valleys and streams during and following storms. We review the history of interflow research and address some of the chal- lenges in understanding its role in runoff production. We argue that characterising the controls on interflow initiation and occurrence relies on detailed field observa- tions of subsurface properties, which exist only in limited experimental settings. This data shortcoming contributes to our inability to predict interflow or determine its contribution to streamflow more broadly. There remain many opportunities to advance our understanding of interflow that include both modelling and experimental or observational approaches in hydrology.
- Forest catchment structure mediates shallow subsurface flow and soil base cation fluxesPennino, Amanda; Strahm, Brian D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Bower, Jennifer A.; Bailey, Scott W.; Schreiber, Madeline E.; Ross, Donald S.; Duston, Stephanie A.; Benton, Joshua R. (Elsevier, 2024-10)Hydrologic behavior and soil properties across forested landscapes with complex topography exhibit high variability. The interaction of groundwater with spatially distinct soils produces and transports solutes across catchments, however, the spatiotemporal relationships between groundwater dynamics and soil solute fluxes are difficult to directly evaluate. While whole-catchment export of solutes by shallow subsurface flow represents an integration of soil environments and conditions but many studies compartmentalize soil solute fluxes as hillslope vs. riparian, deep vs. shallow, or as individual soil horizon contributions. This potentially obscures and underestimates the hillslope variation and magnitude of solute fluxes and soil development across the landscape. This study determined the spatial variation and of shallow soil base cation fluxes associated with weathering reactions (Ca, Mg, and Na), soil elemental depletion, and soil saturation dynamics in upland soils within a small, forested watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH. Base cation fluxes were calculated using a combination of ion-exchange resins placed in shallow groundwater wells (0.3 – 1 m depth) located across hillslope transects (ridges to lower backslopes) and measurements of groundwater levels. Groundwater levels were also used to create metrics of annual soil saturation. Base cation fluxes were positively correlated with soil saturation frequency and were greatest in soil profiles where primary minerals were most depleted of base cations (i.e., highly weathered). Spatial differences in soil saturation across the catchment were strongly related to topographic properties of the upslope drainage area and are interpreted to result from spatial variations in transient groundwater dynamics. Results from this work suggest that the structure of a catchment defines the spatial architecture of base cation fluxes, likely reflecting the mediation of subsurface stormflow dynamics on soil development. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of further compartmentalizing solute fluxes along hillslopes, where certain areas may disproportionately contribute solutes to the whole catchment. Refining catchment controls on base cation generation and transport could be an important tool for opening the black box of catchment elemental cycling.
- Toward Collaborative Adaptation: Assessing Impacts of Coastal Flooding at the Watershed ScaleMitchell, Allison; Bukvic, Anamaria; Shao, Yang; Irish, Jennifer L.; McLaughlin, Daniel L. (Springer Nature, 2022-12)The U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region is experiencing higher rates of SLR than the global average, especially in Hampton Roads, Virginia, where this acceleration is primarily driven by land subsidence. The adaptation plans for coastal flooding are generally developed at the municipal level, ignoring the broader spatial implications of flooding outside the individual administrative boundaries. Flood impact assessments at the watershed scale would provide a more holistic perspective on what is needed to synchronize the adaptation efforts between the neighboring administrative units. This paper evaluates flooding impacts from sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge among watersheds in Hampton Roads to identify those most at risk of coastal flooding over different time horizons. It also explores the implications of flooding on the municipalities, the land uses, and land covers throughout this region within the case study watershed. The 2% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) storm surge flood hazard data and NOAA’s intermediate SLR projections were used to develop flooding scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 and delineate land areas at risk of combined flooding. Findings show that five out of 98 watersheds will substantially increase in inundation, with two intersecting multiple municipalities. They also indicate significant inundation of military, commercial, and industrial land uses and wetland land covers. Flooding will also impact residential land use in urban areas along the Elizabeth River and Hampton city, supporting the need for collaborative adaptation planning on hydrologically influenced spatial scales.
- A modular curriculum to teach undergraduates ecological forecasting improves student and instructor confidence in their data science skillsLofton, Mary E.; Moore, Tadhg N.; Woelmer, Whitney M.; Thomas, R. Quinn; Carey, Cayelan C. (Oxford University Press, 2024-10-10)Data science skills (e.g., analyzing, modeling, and visualizing large data sets) are increasingly needed by undergraduates in the life sciences. However, a lack of both student and instructor confidence in data science skills presents a barrier to their inclusion in undergraduate curricula. To reduce this barrier, we developed four teaching modules in the Macrosystems EDDIE (for environmental data-driven inquiry and exploration) program to introduce undergraduate students and instructors to ecological forecasting, an emerging subdiscipline that integrates multiple data science skills. Ecological forecasting aims to improve natural resource management by providing future predictions of ecosystems with uncertainty. We assessed module efficacy with 596 students and 26 instructors over 3 years and found that module completion increased students’ confidence in their understanding of ecological forecasting and instructors’ likelihood to work with long-term, high-frequency sensor network data. Our modules constitute one of the first formalized data science curricula on ecological forecasting for undergraduates.
- A genome-guided strategy for climate resilience in American chestnut restoration populationsSandercock, Alexander M.; Westbrook, Jared W.; Zhang, Qian; Holliday, Jason A. (National Academy of Sciences, 2024-07-16)American chestnut (Castanea dentata) is a deciduous tree species of eastern North America that was decimated by the introduction of the chestnut blight fungus (Cryphonectria parasitica) in the early 20th century. Although millions of American chestnuts survive as root collar sprouts, these trees rarely reproduce. Thus, the species is considered functionally extinct. American chestnuts with improved blight resistance have been developed through interspecific hybridization followed by conspecific backcrossing, and by genetic engineering. Incorporating adaptive genomic diversity into these backcross families and transgenic lines is important for restoring the species across broad climatic gradients. To develop sampling recommendations for ex situ conservation of wild adaptive genetic variation, we coupled whole-genome resequencing of 384 stump sprouts with genotype–environment association analyses and found that the species range can be subdivided into three seed zones characterized by relatively homogeneous adaptive allele frequencies. We estimated that 21 to 29 trees per seed zone will need to be conserved to capture most extant adaptive diversity. We also resequenced the genomes of 269 backcross trees to understand the extent to which the breeding program has already captured wild adaptive diversity, and to estimate optimal reintroduction sites for specific families on the basis of their adaptive portfolio and future climate projections. Taken together, these results inform the development of an ex situ germplasm conservation and breeding plan to target blight-resistant breeding populations to specific environments and provides a blueprint for developing restoration plans for other imperiled tree species.
- Rethinking Productivity Evaluation in Precision Forestry through Dominant Height and Site Index Measurements Using Aerial Laser Scanning LiDAR DataRaigosa-García, Iván; Rathbun, Leah C.; Cook, Rachel L.; Baker, Justin S.; Corrao, Mark V.; Sumnall, Matthew J. (MDPI, 2024-06-07)Optimizing forest plantation management has become imperative due to increasing forest product demand, higher fertilization and management costs, declining land availability, increased competition for land use, and the growing demands for carbon sequestration. Precision forestry refers to the ability to use data acquired with technology to support the forest management decision-making process. LiDAR can be used to assess forest metrics such as tree height, topographical position, soil surface attributes, and their combined effects on individual tree growth. LiDAR opens the door to precision silviculture applied at the tree level and can inform precise treatments such as fertilization, thinning, and herbicide application for individual trees. This study uses ALS LiDAR and other ancillary data to assess the effect of scale (i.e., stand, soil type, and microtopography) on dominant height and site index measures within loblolly pine plantations across the southeastern United States. This study shows differences in dominant height and site index across soil types, with even greater differences observed when the interactions of microtopography were considered. These results highlight how precision forestry may provide a unique opportunity for assessing soil and microtopographic information to optimize resource allocation and forest management at an individual tree scale in a scarce higher-priced fertilizer scenario.
- Local knowledge reconstructs historical resource useCastello, Leandro; Martins, Eduardo G.; Sorice, Michael G.; Smith, Eric P.; Almedia, Morgana; Bastos, Gastao C.C.; Gardoso, Luis G.; Clauzet, Mariana; Dopona, Alisson P.; Ferreira, Beatrice; Haimovic, Manuel; Jorge, Marcelo; Mendonça, Jocemar; Ávila-da- Silva, Antonio O.; Roman, Ana P.O.; Ramires, Milena; de Miranda, Laura V.; Lopes, Priscila F.M. (Wiley, 2024-03-07)Information on natural resource exploitation is vital for conservation but scarce in developing nations, which encompass most of the world and often lack the capacity to produce it. A growing approach to generate information about resource use in the context of developing nations relies on surveys of resource users about their recollections (recall) of past harvests. However, the reliability of harvest recalls remains unclear. Here, we show that harvest recalls can be as accurate to data collected by standardized protocols, despite that recalls are variable and affected by the age of the recollecting person and the length of time elapsed since the event. Samples of harvest recalls permit relatively reliable reconstruction of harvests for up to 39 years in the past. Harvest recalls therefore have strong potential to inform data-poor resource systems and curb shifting baselines around the world at a fraction of the cost of conventional approaches.
- Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenariosChandler, Houston C.; Caruso, Nicholas M.; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Jiao, Yan; Brooks, George C.; Haas, Carola A. (PeerJ, 2023-09-19)Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025–2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.
- A Comparison of Probability Density Functions Fitted by Moments and Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods Used for Diameter Distribution EstimationGorgoso-Varela, Jose Javier; Adedapo, Segun M.; Ogana, Friday N. (MDPI, 2024-02-22)Modeling diameter distribution is a crucial aspect of forest management, requiring the selection of an appropriate probability density function or cumulative distribution function along with a fitting method. This study compared the suitability of eight probability density functions—A Charlier, beta, generalized beta, gamma, Gumbel, Johnson’s SB, and Weibull (two- and three-parameter)—fitted using both derivative methods (Moments) fitted in SAS/STATTM and optimization methods (MLE) fitted with the ‘optim’ function in R for diameter distribution estimation in forest stands. The A Charlier and Gumbel functions were used for the first time in this type of comparison. The data were derived from 167 permanent sample plots in an Atlantic forest (Quercus robur) and 59 temporary sample plots in tropical forests (Tectona grandis). Fit quality was assessed using various indices, including Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Cramér–von Mises, mean absolute error, bias, and mean squared error. The results indicated that Johnson’s SB function was more suitable for describing the diameter distribution of the stands. Johnson’s SB, three-parameter Weibull, and generalized beta consistently performed well across different fitting methods, while the fits produced by gamma, Gumbel, and two-parameter Weibull were of poor quality.
- Effects of establishment fertilization on Landsat-assessed leaf area development of loblolly pine standsHouse, Matthew N.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Thomas, Valerie A.; Cook, Rachel L.; Carter, David R.; Van Mullekom, Jennifer H.; Rakestraw, Jim; Schroeder, Todd A. (Elsevier, 2024-03-15)Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations in the southeastern United States are among the world's most intensively managed forest plantations. Under intensive management, a common practice is fertilizing at establishment. The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of establishment fertilization on leaf area development of loblolly pine plantation stands (n = 3997) over 16 years compared to stands that did not receive nutrient additions at planting. Leaf area index (LAI) is a meaningful biophysical indicator of vigor and an important functional and structural element of a planted stand. The study area was stratified by plant hardiness zone to account for climatic differences and soil type (texture and drainage class), using the Cooperative Research in Forest Fertilization (CRIFF) groupings. LAI was estimated from Landsat imagery to create trajectories of mean stand LAI over 16 years. Establishment fertilization, on average, (1) increased stand LAI beginning at year two, with a peak at years six and seven, and (2) decreased the time required for a stand to reach a winter LAI of 1.5 by almost two years. Fertilization responses varied by climate zone and soil drainage class, where the warmest zones benefited the most, particularly in poorly drained soils. Past year 10, the differences in LAI between fertilized and unfertilized stands were not practically important. Using Landsat data in a cloud-computing environment, we demonstrated the benefits of establishment fertilization to stand LAI development using a large sample over the native range of loblolly pine.
- Tree Performance in a Stormwater Bioretention SystemApisa, Ethan; Wiseman, P. Eric (2022-01-25)Stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces in urban areas causes water pollution and flash flooding. Trees can help solve this problem by capturing and absorbing rain. However, there is often not enough space in cities for both trees and conventional stormwater control systems. Various bioretention systems that incorporate trees are used in cities, but they are expensive and complex, which makes their implementation difficult. We are investigating a system that may prove to be less complex, less costly, and better for growing trees. Our full-scale prototype of this system was constructed in 2020 adjacent to a parking lot on the Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg, VA. It comprises a belowground gravel bed surrounding a soil bed where trees are planted. The gravel bed stores a large volume of parking lot runoff that is then absorbed by the tree roots and expelled to the air through transpiration. Our long-term study of this prototype aims to understand how well the system captures and stores runoff and how well the trees perform compared to control trees in a standard planting nearby. We are monitoring tree crown and root growth, photosynthesis, and leaf stomatal conductance. Growth and physiology of the trees in the system has been comparable to the control trees since being planted in May 2020.
- Documentation and Conservation of Champion Big Trees in Urban ForestsWiseman, P. Eric (2023-11-14)North Carolina Community Tree Webinar
- Resilient Tree Species for Urban Environments in VirginiaWiseman, P. Eric (2023-06-09)Virginia Cooperative Extension Master Gardener College
- Principles and Practices for Pruning Trees Around the Home and LandscapeWiseman, P. Eric (2023-02-11)Southwest Landowner Woods & Wildlife 2023 Conference
- Using i-Tree Canopy to Assess Tree Canopy Cover and Ecosystem Services of Three Urban Forests Within the George Washington Memorial ParkwayWiseman, P. Eric; Chambard, Agustin; Kelsch, Paul; Heavers, Nathan (2023-08-05)
- A Comparison of Forest Biomass and Conventional Harvesting Effects on Estimated Erosion, Best Management Practice Implementation, Ground Cover, and Residual Woody Debris in VirginiaGarren, Austin M.; Bolding, Michael Chad; Barrett, Scott M.; Hawks, Eric M.; Aust, Wallace Michael; Coates, Thomas Adam (MDPI, 2023-11-17)Expanding markets for renewable energy feedstocks have increased demand for woody biomass. Concerns associated with forest biomass harvesting include increased erosion, the applicability of conventional forestry Best Management Practices (BMPs) for protecting water quality, and reduced woody debris retention for soil nutrients and cover. We regionally compared the data and results from three prior independent studies that estimated erosion, BMP implementation, and residual woody debris following biomass and conventional forest harvests in the Mountains, Piedmont, and Coastal Plain of Virginia. Estimated erosion was higher in the Mountains due to steep slopes and operational challenges. Mountain skid trails were particularly concerning, comprising only 8.47% of the total area but from 37.9 to 81.1% of the total site-wide estimated erosion. BMP implementation varied by region and harvest type, with biomass sites having better implementation than conventional sites, and conventional Mountain sites having lower implementation than other regions. Sufficient woody debris remained for BMPs on both harvest types in all regions, with conventional Mountain sites retaining twice that of Coastal Plain sites. BMPs reduced the estimated erosion on both site types suggesting increased implementation could reduce potential erosion in problematic areas. Therefore, proper BMP implementation should be ensured, particularly in Mountainous terrain, regardless of harvest type.
- A community convention for ecological forecasting: output files and metadata v1.0Dietze, Michael C.; Thomas, R. Quinn; Peters, Jody; Boettiger, Carl; Koren, Gerbrand; Shiklomanov, Alexey N.; Ashander, Jaime (Wiley, 2023-11-23)This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast communication, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files, we first describe the convention conceptually in terms of global attributes, forecast dimensions, forecasted variables, and ancillary indicator variables. We then illustrate the application of this convention to the two file formats that are currently preferred by the EFI, netCDF (network common data form), and comma-separated values (CSV), but note that the convention is extensible to future formats. For metadata, EFI's convention identifies a subset of conventional metadata variables that are required (e.g., temporal resolution and output variables) but focuses on developing a framework for storing information about forecast uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, and model complexity, which aims to facilitate cross-forecast synthesis. The initial application of this convention expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), a commonly used metadata standard in ecology. To facilitate community adoption, we also provide a Github repository containing a metadata validator tool and several vignettes in R and Python on how to both write and read in the EFI standard. Lastly, we provide guidance on forecast archiving, making an important distinction between short-term dissemination and long-term forecast archiving, while also touching on the archiving of code and workflows. Overall, the EFI convention is a living document that can continue to evolve over time through an open community process.