This study addressed the prevention of reading problems by examining the predictive validity of the Developmental Indicators of Assessment and Learning-Revised (DIAL-R), the Gesell School Readiness Test, and the Preschool Screening Battery. The effects of entry-level developmental abilities on reading performance were also studied.

Subjects were sixth grade students from five school systems in North Carolina. School system selection was based on the type of screening test used in 1988, and availability of data. Data were collected through student record reviews. Predictive discriminant analyses were computed to assess the accuracy of the screening batteries in predicting reading group membership at the third and fifth grade levels. Classification accuracy was determined by comparing hit ratios from the classification matrices with proportional chance criterion. Standard normal statistics and Press's Q statistics were computed to determine if the hit rates were better than those expected by chance. Early determinants were identified through interpretation of the discriminant functions. Significant differences between correctly and incorrectly classified students were identified through t-tests comparing means scores of both groups.

Several implications were derived from the study. First, the magnitude of the discriminatory power of the DIALR and Preschool Screening Battery to predict reading group membership at the third and fifth grades was sufficient to recommend their continued use in preschool screening. The Gesell School Readiness Test was better than chance on only three out of twelve criteria, however, and is not recommended as a predictor of reading achievement.

Discriminant analyses resulted in the identification of three early determinants, conceptual development, biological development (fine motor and perceptual skills), and language comprehension. Expressive language emerged as the most important language subskill studied and auditory memory was the most important perceptual skill.

The multiple cause theory of reading acquisition was Supported by these results. Visual motor skills were more influential in the early stages of word analysis, and language and conceptual development were more influential in predicting comprehension skills.

Intra-test variation in predictor variables appeared to be the most important contributor to inaccurate classification. Other factors were individual subject characteristics such as behavior problems or chronic illness.