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    Comparing Effectiveness of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Strategies in Containing Influenza

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    Downloads: 206
    Date
    2011-09-22
    Author
    Marathe, Achla
    Lewis, Bryan L.
    Barrett, Christopher L.
    Chen, Jiangzhuo
    Marathe, Madhav V.
    Eubank, Stephen
    Ma, Yifei
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    Abstract
    This research compares the performance of bottom-up, self-motivated behavioral interventions with top-down interventions targeted at controlling an “Influenza-like-illness”. Both types of interventions use a variant of the ring strategy. In the first case, when the fraction of a person's direct contacts who are diagnosed exceeds a threshold, that person decides to seek prophylaxis, e.g. vaccine or antivirals; in the second case, we consider two intervention protocols, denoted Block and School: when a fraction of people who are diagnosed in a Census Block (resp., School) exceeds the threshold, prophylax the entire Block (resp., School). Results show that the bottom-up strategy outperforms the top-down strategies under our parameter settings. Even in situations where the Block strategy reduces the overall attack rate well, it incurs a much higher cost. These findings lend credence to the notion that if people used antivirals effectively, making them available quickly on demand to private citizens could be a very effective way to control an outbreak.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10919/48986
    Collections
    • Destination Area: Data and Decisions (D&D) [138]
    • Destination Area: Global Systems Science (GSS) [625]
    • Scholarly Works, Fralin Life Sciences Institute [542]

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