Prediction of freshmen withdrawing from an emerging state university

The primary purpose of this study is to investigate and modify an instrument by which the prediction of high risk withdrawal students can be accomplished at an emerging state university.

The study utilized 334 members of the freshman class at the state university. Study participants received no special programming or treatment prior to completion of the questionnaire. The subjects were required to complete Alexander Astin's Prediction Scale. Measures taken were: pre-college background, family background, educational aspirations, expectations about college, student characteristics, source of financial aid, work status and place of residence during student‘s freshman year. The statistical treatment of the data collected within this investigation required several techniques in determining its significance.

An analysis of variance was employed to ascertain the differences existing between the independent and dependent variable established within the investigation. A multivariate regression analysis was used to designate the exact location of the differences revealed by the ANOVA program.

An analysis of these computations revealed differences existing between males and females. Multiple regression revealed a difference in each of the four steps of each group when compared to the other group.

The findings of this investigation warrant the following general conclusions:

1. That the freshman year is very crucial in the persistence of students at the university by the highest percentage of withdrawals coming from the freshman class.

2. That entering freshmen with grades higher than A had a better than 50% chance for retention; other research supports this position.

3. That dissatisfaction with the program or lack of money contributes significantly to reasons for student withdrawal.

4. That financial stability of parents of students who attended the university is important in the persistence of all students.

5. That cooperative efforts from the local, state, federal and institution's financial communities is a must in keeping the availability of work opportunities for students who desire and have the need to work.

6. That commitment to the educational goals of the university was a major concern of enrollees.

7. Finally, that being able to "fit" both academically and socially was very important to incoming enrollees.