Characterizing the impact of climatic and price anomalies on agrosystems in the northwest United States

dc.contributor.authorWurster, Patricken
dc.contributor.authorManeta, Marcoen
dc.contributor.authorBegueria, Santiagoen
dc.contributor.authorCobourn, Kelly M.en
dc.contributor.authorMaxwell, Bruce D.en
dc.contributor.authorSilverman, Nicken
dc.contributor.authorEwing, Stephanieen
dc.contributor.authorJensco, Kelseyen
dc.contributor.authorGardner, Paytonen
dc.contributor.authorKimball, Johnen
dc.contributor.authorHolden, Zacharyen
dc.contributor.authorJi, Xindeen
dc.contributor.authorVicente-Serrano, Sergio M.en
dc.contributor.departmentForest Resources and Environmental Conservationen
dc.description.abstractWe present an analysis of the sensitivity of three key crops (alfalfa, barley and winter wheat) produced in the northwestern United States to climatic and agricultural market anomalies using widely used standardized indices. Rather than investigating sensitivity of crop yields (production per unit area), we focus on agricultural production (yield * harvested area) anomalies, which captures both variations in yield and the effect of decision-making factors such as allocation of cropping area. We used two well-known standardized precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) indices (SPI and EDDI, respectively) and a standardized crop value index in a multivariate linear regression analysis to determine the characteristic timing and time-scales of precipitation and ETo anomalies that best explain annual crop production anomalies. Since climatic and market factors are standardized, regression coefficients are interpreted as a sensitivity measure that captures the relative effect of climatic and agricultural markets on agricultural production. Results show that alfalfa production was most sensitive climatic anomalies while barley and wheat production was more responsive to crop prices. Sensitivity to precipitation anomalies followed gradients in precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture regimes across the study area where drier and warmer climates were associated with increased sensitivity to climatic anomalies. We found that irrigation decoupled alfalfa production from climatic variability, but the effect of irrigation on decoupling barley production was less clear. Winter wheat production was most sensitive to price anomalies, and alfalfa was least sensitive. Omitting agricultural market conditions and other farmer incentives may introduce biases in our understanding of how drought and climate change impact agricultural production.en
dc.description.adminPublic domain – authored by a U.S. government employeeen
dc.description.notesThis work has been supported by the United States Department of Agriculture, USDA-NIFA research grant 2016-67026-25067, and by the NASA EPSCoR program research grant 80NSSC18M0025. P.W. also acknowledges partial support from the NSF EPSCoR cooperative agreement EPS-1101342.en
dc.description.sponsorshipUnited States Department of Agriculture, USDA-NIFA [2016-67026-25067]; NASA EPSCoR program [80NSSC18M0025]; NSF EPSCoRNational Science Foundation (NSF)NSF - Office of the Director (OD) [EPS-1101342]en
dc.rightsPublic Domainen
dc.subjectClimatic anomaliesen
dc.subjectCrop productionen
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation index (SPI)en
dc.subjectEvaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI)en
dc.titleCharacterizing the impact of climatic and price anomalies on agrosystems in the northwest United Statesen
dc.title.serialAgricultural and Forest Meteorologyen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
4.33 MB
Adobe Portable Document Format