Impact of the 2008 <i>M_W</i> 7.9 Great Wenchuan earthquake on South China microplate motion

Abstract

Tectonic plate motions drive the earthquake cycle, as they result in the slow accrual and sudden release of energy along plate boundaries. Steadiness of plate motions over the earthquake cycle is a central tenet of the plate tectonics theory and has long been a main pillar in models of earthquake genesis, or of plate-margins seismic potential inferred from slip-deficit estimates. The advent of geodesy in the geosciences and the availability of multi-year-long series of position measurements permit tracking the motions of tectonic plates from before to after the time of significant seismic events that occur along their margins. Here, we present evidence that large earthquakes are capable of modifying the motions of entire microplates. We use high precision Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series covering the periods 2001–2004 and 2014–2017 to demonstrate that, contrary to the tenet above, the South China microplate motion changed after the 2008 MW 7.9 Great Wenchuan earthquake. The GNSS data and associated uncertainties indicate a plate motion slowdown of up to 20% that is beyond the possible impact of data noise and is thus tectonically meaningful. We use quantitative models of torque balance to show that generating this kinematic change requires a force upon the South China microplate compatible with that imparted by the Great Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. The existence of a kinematic signal linked to the earthquake cycle that impacts an entire microplate might offer an additional, novel perspective to assessing the hazards of earthquake-prone tectonic regions.