A justification of negotiated National Forest planning and the development of a prototype computerized negotiated planning tool based on GIS and simulation techniques

Abstract

The existing literature regarding the national forest planning process was reviewed and critiqued. This critique was aimed at identifying the planning process that was most likely to produce workable multiple-use national forest management plans without relying on procedures outside the process itself to make additional planning decisions. Using this criterion, it was determined that a planning process based on negotiations between the forest service and interested groups and/or individuals was the most promising planning process proposed to date.

The nature of negotiated planning processes, national forest management plans, and computerized planning tools were investigated. Based on these investigations, performance criteria for computerized planning tools designed to operate within a negotiated national forest planning process were developed. These criteria called for such a planning tool to (1) be available and usable to all individuals and/or groups involved in the planning process, (2) be able to manage the planning process’s data management and modeling tasks, (3) be able to present data in a manner that facilitates understanding and communication, and (4) be able to develop an initial management plan that can serve as a starting point for the negotiation process.

Finally, a prototype planning tool designed to meet the performance criteria just presented was developed and tested. In order to meet the third performance criterion, this prototype used maps as its primary data representation and presentation medium. Since the prototype was based on mapped data manipulation, it relied heavily on geographic information system (GIS) technology. The prototype also utilized simulation, optimization and economic modeling techniques.

In addition to its ability to function within a negotiated planning framework, the prototype planning tool developed in this study also demonstrated the ability of such tools to build spatially defined forest management plans. No existing planning tool has this ability (including FORPLAN, the Forest Service’s current planning tool), and some authors have expressed doubt that any computerized system could develop spatially defined management plans. However, since this study’s prototype tool developed management plans that could be represented using maps, it by definition developed management plans that were spatially defined.

When the prototype was tested, it was found to behave in a logical, intuitively appealing manner. For example, the system responded to increased timber values by increasing cutting operations, and to increased recreational values by decreasing management actions that adversely impact recreation (i.e., timber production). It was concluded that building an operational version of such a planning tool was feasible, and specific recommendations regarding how such a tool could be built were provided.