Agricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflict

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dc.contributor.authorGrant, Jason H.en
dc.contributor.authorArita, Shawnen
dc.contributor.authorEmlinger, Charlotteen
dc.contributor.authorJohansson, Robert C.en
dc.contributor.authorXie, Chaopingen
dc.contributor.departmentCenter for Agricultural Tradeen
dc.contributor.departmentAgricultural and Applied Economicsen
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-04T18:37:13Zen
dc.date.available2021-03-04T18:37:13Zen
dc.date.issued2021-01en
dc.description.abstractWe estimate the ex-post agricultural trade impacts of retaliatory measures imposed by foreign countries in response to United States' Section 232 and 301 tariffs using a theoretically consistent, monthly, product line gravity equation. Retaliation led to significant US agricultural export losses of $13.5 to $18.7 billion on an annualized basis. Considerable heterogeneity exists in the average treatment effect of retaliation. First, retaliatory trade actions presented a strong within-year seasonal impact. Nearly 70% of aggregate trade losses occurred during the US's peak export marketing season. Second, U.S. trade losses were particularly pronounced on homogeneous bulk commodities, whereas product differentiation dampened the impact of retaliation. Third, with few exceptions, the counterfactually estimated direct trade losses line up well with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) trade damage estimates for trade aid programs distributed to farmers impacted by the trade dispute. Finally, we find little evidence that U.S. exports were able to be reoriented to alternative, nonretaliating markets-an indication of high bilateral trade frictions and the destructive consequences of retaliatory trade actions.en
dc.description.adminPublic domain – authored by a U.S. government employeeen
dc.description.notesPriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD); National Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Numbers: 71934005, 71903090; Office of the Chief Economist, Grant/Award Number: 58-0111-19-013en
dc.description.sponsorshipPriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD); National Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [71934005, 71903090]; Office of the Chief Economist [58-0111-19-013]en
dc.description.versionPublished versionen
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13138en
dc.identifier.eissn2040-5804en
dc.identifier.issn2040-5790en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10919/102610en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.rightsPublic Domainen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/en
dc.subjectgravity modelen
dc.subjectretaliationen
dc.subjecttrade aid programsen
dc.subjecttrade waren
dc.titleAgricultural exports and retaliatory trade actions: An empirical assessment of the 2018/2019 trade conflicten
dc.title.serialApplied Economic Perspectives and Policyen
dc.typeArticle - Refereeden
dc.type.dcmitypeTexten
dc.type.dcmitypeStillImageen

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