Extraordinary parasite multiplication rates in human malaria infections

For pathogenic organisms, faster rates of multiplication promote transmission success, the potential to harm hosts, and the evolution of drug resistance. Parasite multiplication rates (PMRs) are often quantified in malaria infections, given the relative ease of sampling. Using modern and historical human infection data, we show that established methods return extraordinarily – and implausibly – large PMRs. We illustrate how inflated PMRs arise from two facets of malaria biology that are far from unique: (i) some developmental ages are easier to sample than others; (ii) the distribution of developmental ages changes over the course of infection. The difficulty of accurately quantifying PMRs demonstrates a need for robust methods and a subsequent re-evaluation of what is known even in the well-studied system of malaria.