In the Middle East, Separatists Are the New Spoilers

Abstract

There is an end in sight for the wars that wracked the Middle East for much of the decade, even as the fighting drags on. The U.S., Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and other outside powers have found a general formula for conflict resolution that combines state-building with power-sharing. Central states would be empowered to defeat terrorists and take control over otherwise ungoverned territory while former belligerents would be enticed into the fold of the state. This two-pronged formula, however, is ill-suited for dealing with separatists that seek to carve out states of their own with new international boundaries. Separatist forces played a critical role in sustaining local orders as national politics descended into chaos after 2011. They appealed to the global community to grant them self-determination. Inhabiting far-off border regions where state control was minimal, they were foot soldiers in the coalitions that defeated ISIS and other radical Islamist terrorists. But separatists’ demands for recognition of national rights are typically ignored in peace processes that remain focused on elites inhabiting state capitals. Separatists are thus poised to be the region’s next spoilers, wrecking efforts that seek peace and stability through the rehabilitation of existing states.