Timing and expectations in the theory of taxation

Abstract

This dissertation is a study of individual intertemporal choice, and how alternative tax institutions and taxpayer expectations about the employment of tax institutions can affect those choices.

This examination differs from standard tax analysis by explicitly incorporating into the analysis taxpayer expectations of reforms to the prevailing tax arrangements. To demonstrate the significant implications of taxpayer expectations, the issue of the choice of tax base is reexamined in a setting where tax rates are changing through time. The comprehensive income base, the consumption base, and the labor income tax base are each considered in terms of their efficiency attributes and their implications for both the magnitude and form of capital accumulation.

This analysis illustrates that the labor income tax is superior to the other tax bases in terms of the standard criteria noted. Furthermore, the consumption tax, which is supposedly intertemporally neutral, in fact distorts intertemporal choices. An examination of United States data for the 1929-1978 period suggests that inflation adjustment of the prevailing income tax system is, contrary to several tax reform proposals, preferable to the implementation of an expenditure tax.

Taxpayer expectations will be influenced by both the nature of possible tax reform and the means by which tax reform is implemented. The role of the timing of announcement and the equity implications of tax reform are investigated under different taxpayer perceptions of the likelihood of reform. Finally, it is demonstrated that, as individuals behave in accordance with expected change, the power to reform the tax system involves costs through rent seeking and uncertainty. Citizen-taxpayers will take these costs into account in their choice of fiscal rules.