Stochastic modeling - A three-stage tourist choice process

This study analyzes a multistage tourist choice process which includes three basic decisions: first taking a vacation; second visiting foreign vs. domestic destinations, and third taking multi- vs. single-destination vacations. Various research hypotheses relating to the impact of a number of personal characteristics on these decisions are stated. The methodology uses multinomial logit models with random coefficients estimated by hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The empirical application is carried out in Spain and leads to the conclusion that personal characteristics relating to the chosen destination, personal restrictions, and sociodemographic and psychographic characteristics are determinants of these decisions and that the nested and nonindependent character of the three decisions reveals a multistage decisionmaking process.